Daily Papers

Knowledge benchmarks for LLMs face three issues: scaling-driven designs that do not operationalize disciplinary representativeness; flat-payment annotation that permits lazy consensus; and unaudited ranking instability under bounded test budgets. We introduce KINA, an 899-item benchmark across 261 fine-grained disciplines, with two formal results. First, we cast representativeness as a coverage-style objective over expert-elicited anchors and operationalize disciplinary representativeness through a proxy, yielding a (1-1/e) greedy approximation (Proposition 1); the guarantee applies to the proxy, not to population representativeness. Second, we prove a bonus-on-bar tournament weakly FOSD-dominates flat payment in released-review quality, with incentive-compatibility threshold B > Delta C / Delta p_min (Theorem 1). Evaluating 42 models from 13 labs, the top model, Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview, reaches 53.17%, followed by Claude-Opus-4.6 at 49.92% and GPT-5.4 at 48.55%, leaving substantial headroom below saturation. The full leaderboard shows a tiered structure rather than a smooth total order: a small frontier tier lies above 48%, a dense strong-model tier spans roughly 38-45%, and low-performing models remain only modestly above the 10% chance baseline. Tool augmentation adds up to 5.17 points across the five tool-use evaluations, with gains varying substantially across models. We report bootstrap ranking-stability statistics to make bounded-budget variance explicit and to discourage over-interpretation of adjacent ranks.

Benchmarking video-language models has largely focused on short clips and single-sentence metrics, leaving open whether current systems can generate accurate long-form, paragraph-level descriptions. We introduce CLIP-CC-Bench, an evaluation suite for long-form video description built from 5 hours of movie content segmented into 90-second clips, each paired with an expert-written paragraph-style reference. The evaluation suite employs an ensemble of five state-of-the-art LLM-based embedding models to increase reliability and mitigate single-model bias, and applies two complementary methodologies: (i) coarse-grained semantic matching and (ii) fine-grained semantic matching to compare model-generated descriptions against CLIP-CC-Bench references. Using this framework, we evaluate 17 state-of-the-art video-language models and report both their Borda-aggregated rankings and their average scores on CLIP-CC-Bench. We further quantify the protocol's internal reliability through inter-judge agreement and bootstrap ranking stability. We release standardized evaluation scripts, model outputs, and aggregation tools at https://github.com/Multimodal-Intelligence-Lab/CLIP-CC-Bench to support reproducibility. CLIP-CC-Bench provides a practical evaluation framework for long-form video description, filling a gap left by existing short-clip and QA-only benchmarks.

Modern recommender systems may output considerably different recommendations due to small perturbations in the training data. Changes in the data from a single user will alter the recommendations as well as the recommendations of other users. In applications like healthcare, housing, and finance, this sensitivity can have adverse effects on user experience. We propose a method to stabilize a given recommender system against such perturbations. This is a challenging task due to (1) the lack of a ``reference'' rank list that can be used to anchor the outputs; and (2) the computational challenges in ensuring the stability of rank lists with respect to all possible perturbations of training data. Our method, FINEST, overcomes these challenges by obtaining reference rank lists from a given recommendation model and then fine-tuning the model under simulated perturbation scenarios with rank-preserving regularization on sampled items. Our experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that FINEST can ensure that recommender models output stable recommendations under a wide range of different perturbations without compromising next-item prediction accuracy.

Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.

Prediction models can exhibit sensitivity with respect to training data: small changes in the training data can produce models that assign conflicting predictions to individual data points during test time. In this work, we study this sensitivity in recommender systems, where users' recommendations are drastically altered by minor perturbations in other unrelated users' interactions. We introduce a measure of stability for recommender systems, called Rank List Sensitivity (RLS), which measures how rank lists generated by a given recommender system at test time change as a result of a perturbation in the training data. We develop a method, CASPER, which uses cascading effect to identify the minimal and systematical perturbation to induce higher instability in a recommender system. Experiments on four datasets show that recommender models are overly sensitive to minor perturbations introduced randomly or via CASPER - even perturbing one random interaction of one user drastically changes the recommendation lists of all users. Importantly, with CASPER perturbation, the models generate more unstable recommendations for low-accuracy users (i.e., those who receive low-quality recommendations) than high-accuracy ones.

The bootstrap is a popular data-driven method to quantify statistical uncertainty, but for modern high-dimensional problems, it could suffer from huge computational costs due to the need to repeatedly generate resamples and refit models. We study the use of bootstraps in high-dimensional environments with a small number of resamples. In particular, we show that with a recent "cheap" bootstrap perspective, using a number of resamples as small as one could attain valid coverage even when the dimension grows closely with the sample size, thus strongly supporting the implementability of the bootstrap for large-scale problems. We validate our theoretical results and compare the performance of our approach with other benchmarks via a range of experiments.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

Bagging is an important technique for stabilizing machine learning models. In this paper, we derive a finite-sample guarantee on the stability of bagging for any model. Our result places no assumptions on the distribution of the data, on the properties of the base algorithm, or on the dimensionality of the covariates. Our guarantee applies to many variants of bagging and is optimal up to a constant. Empirical results validate our findings, showing that bagging successfully stabilizes even highly unstable base algorithms.

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

This paper argues for the widest possible use of bootstrap confidence intervals for comparing NLP system performances instead of the state-of-the-art status (SOTA) and statistical significance testing. Their main benefits are to draw attention to the difference in performance between two systems and to help assessing the degree of superiority of one system over another. Two cases studies, one comparing several systems and the other based on a K-fold cross-validation procedure, illustrate these benefits. A python module for obtaining these confidence intervals as well as a second function implementing the Fisher-Pitman test for paired samples are freely available on PyPi.

ICC's current ranking system does not adequately account for key contextual factors such as home advantage, toss impact and scheduling imbalances; leading to inconsistencies in team evaluation in Test cricket. This study develops an enhanced rating framework by adapting and enhancing Glicko's model to incorporate these influences alongside Margin of Victory, an important indicator of dominance a contest. This enables a more dynamic and probabilistically grounded assessment of team performance. Using past match data, the model demonstrates improved expected score estimation and predictive accuracy. Robustness of the resulting ratings is demonstrated through bootstrap resampling, confirming stability with respect to match scheduling. Overall, the framework provides a fairer and more statistically consistent approach to ranking Test teams.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences typically relies on external supervision, which faces critical limitations: human annotations are scarce and subjective, reward models are vulnerable to reward hacking, and self-evaluation methods suffer from prompt sensitivity and biases. In this work, we propose stable rank, an intrinsic, annotation-free quality signal derived from model representations. Stable rank measures the effective dimensionality of hidden states by computing the ratio of total variance to dominant-direction variance, capturing quality through how information distributes across representation dimensions. Empirically, stable rank achieves 84.04% accuracy on RewardBench and improves task accuracy by an average of 11.3 percentage points over greedy decoding via Best-of-N sampling. Leveraging this insight, we introduce Stable Rank Group Relative Policy Optimization (SR-GRPO), which uses stable rank as a reward signal for reinforcement learning. Without external supervision, SR-GRPO improves Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct by 10% on STEM and 19% on mathematical reasoning, outperforming both learned reward models and self-evaluation baselines. Our findings demonstrate that quality signals can be extracted from internal model geometry, offering a path toward scalable alignment without external supervision.

Recently, we have witnessed the bloom of neural ranking models in the information retrieval (IR) field. So far, much effort has been devoted to developing effective neural ranking models that can generalize well on new data. There has been less attention paid to the robustness perspective. Unlike the effectiveness which is about the average performance of a system under normal purpose, robustness cares more about the system performance in the worst case or under malicious operations instead. When a new technique enters into the real-world application, it is critical to know not only how it works in average, but also how would it behave in abnormal situations. So we raise the question in this work: Are neural ranking models robust? To answer this question, firstly, we need to clarify what we refer to when we talk about the robustness of ranking models in IR. We show that robustness is actually a multi-dimensional concept and there are three ways to define it in IR: 1) The performance variance under the independent and identically distributed (I.I.D.) setting; 2) The out-of-distribution (OOD) generalizability; and 3) The defensive ability against adversarial operations. The latter two definitions can be further specified into two different perspectives respectively, leading to 5 robustness tasks in total. Based on this taxonomy, we build corresponding benchmark datasets, design empirical experiments, and systematically analyze the robustness of several representative neural ranking models against traditional probabilistic ranking models and learning-to-rank (LTR) models. The empirical results show that there is no simple answer to our question. While neural ranking models are less robust against other IR models in most cases, some of them can still win 1 out of 5 tasks. This is the first comprehensive study on the robustness of neural ranking models.

Evaluations of LLM systems routinely average over small prompt sets and report models as a ranked table. We ask how much confidence such a table deserves, using LLM-based prompt-structure inference as the case study: eight open model variants across five families and 8B to 675B parameters, caching disabled, 293 raw intermediate representations persisted. The measured phenomenon is unstable to begin with. Identical calls do not reliably recover identical structure, with mean node-set Jaccard from 0.39 to 0.96 and 72% of prompt-model cells never node-set-perfect. Auditing the evaluation weakens its conclusions further, and this is our main contribution. Under a joint cluster bootstrap over prompts, only the bottom of the ranking is firm: the two least reproducible models hold rank in 99% and 86% of replicates, the middle four in 27% to 48%, and the top two in 68% each, so the table identifies the worst model reliably but does not reliably identify the best. Two equally defensible rules for merging repeated campaigns change four of eight rows and move the study-wide headline by 7 percentage points. Checking the inferred structure against ground-truth annotations shows reproducibility cannot be read as accuracy. And four of the eight endpoints were withdrawn within ten weeks of measurement, so the study as specified can no longer be run. Small-sample LLM evaluations can therefore look far more definitive than their evidence supports. We recommend reporting rank stability, per-cell provenance, executed sensitivity comparisons, raw per-run outputs, and a measurement date alongside any ranking.

In passage reranking, response ranking and multi-document question answering, LLMs can score several candidate documents or responses together in one prompt, each still receiving its own score. Such scorers are selected on ranking quality, but their scores determine a decision: what a score threshold retains, a reader answers, or which chosen/rejected pair enters preference training. Because the candidates share that prompt, reordering them changes their scores. The same query over the same candidates should still yield the same decision. However, equal ranking quality does not imply equal decisions: on passage reranking, five trained scorers within 0.010 nDCG@10 retain sets that overlap by only 0.66-0.84 when reordered. No prompt-time change we test resolves that dependence: the only one that improves ranking quality does not measurably improve decision stability. We introduce order-consistency SFT (OC-SFT), which attenuates it in the weights by penalizing disagreement between a candidate's scores across orderings. It holds ranking quality and leads every decision-stability measure among trained scorers on all three tasks. It is also more stable on 12 base models than order-averaged distillation, which trains on labels averaged across permutations. One OC-SFT permutation retains sets that overlap more than ten averaged off-the-shelf permutations. A comparison of such scorers should therefore report what a threshold retains and a reader answers, not ranking quality alone. Code is available at https://github.com/thomsonreuters/presentation-dependence.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is a widely adopted parameter-efficient method for fine-tuning Large Langauge Models. It updates the weight matrix as W=W_0+sBA, where W_0 is the original frozen weight, s is a scaling factor and A,B are trainable low-rank matrices. Despite its robust empirical effectiveness, the theoretical foundations of LoRA remain insufficiently understood, particularly with respect to feature learning stability. In this paper, we first establish that, LoRA can, in principle, naturally achieve and sustain stable feature learning (i.e., be self-stabilized) under appropriate hyper-parameters and initializations of A and B. However, we also uncover a fundamental limitation that the necessary non-zero initialization of A compromises self-stability, leading to suboptimal performances. To address this challenge, we propose Stable-LoRA, a weight-shrinkage optimization strategy that dynamically enhances stability of LoRA feature learning. By progressively shrinking A during the earliest training steps, Stable-LoRA is both theoretically and empirically validated to effectively eliminate instability of LoRA feature learning while preserving the benefits of the non-zero start. Experiments show that Stable-LoRA consistently outperforms other baselines across diverse models and tasks, with no additional memory usage and only negligible computation overheads. The code is available at https://github.com/Yize-Wu/Stable-LoRA.

We address the challenge of adapting pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for multivariate time-series analysis, where their deployment is often hindered by prohibitive computational and memory demands. Our solution, One-for-All, introduces Gaussian Rank-Stabilized Low-Rank Adapters (rsLoRA) to enable parameter-efficient fine-tuning of frozen LLMs. While inspired by LoRA, rsLoRA introduces a mathematically grounded rank-stabilization mechanism that enables provable gradient stability at low ranks a novel contribution absent in prior PEFT methods. Our framework injects trainable rank decomposition matrices (rank 16) into positional embeddings and output layers, while keeping self-attention weights fixed. This design reduces trainable parameters by 6.8times (vs. TimesNet), 21times (vs. GPT4TS), and 11.8times (vs. TIME-LLM), while achieving a 168-1,776times smaller memory footprint (2.2MiB vs. 340MiB-4.18GiB in SOTA models). Rigorous evaluation across six time-series tasks demonstrates that One-for-All achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-accuracy trade-offs: 5.5times higher parameter efficiency (MSE=5.50) than TimesNet and 21times better than GPT4TS, while matching their forecasting accuracy (MSE=0.33). The framework's stability is validated through consistent performance across diverse horizons (96-720 steps) and datasets (ETT, Weather, M3, M4), with 98.3% fewer parameters than conventional transformers. These advances enable deployment on edge devices for healthcare, finance, and environmental monitoring without compromising performance.

As the heart of a search engine, the ranking system plays a crucial role in satisfying users' information demands. More recently, neural rankers fine-tuned from pre-trained language models (PLMs) establish state-of-the-art ranking effectiveness. However, it is nontrivial to directly apply these PLM-based rankers to the large-scale web search system due to the following challenging issues:(1) the prohibitively expensive computations of massive neural PLMs, especially for long texts in the web-document, prohibit their deployments in an online ranking system that demands extremely low latency;(2) the discrepancy between existing ranking-agnostic pre-training objectives and the ad-hoc retrieval scenarios that demand comprehensive relevance modeling is another main barrier for improving the online ranking system;(3) a real-world search engine typically involves a committee of ranking components, and thus the compatibility of the individually fine-tuned ranking model is critical for a cooperative ranking system. In this work, we contribute a series of successfully applied techniques in tackling these exposed issues when deploying the state-of-the-art Chinese pre-trained language model, i.e., ERNIE, in the online search engine system. We first articulate a novel practice to cost-efficiently summarize the web document and contextualize the resultant summary content with the query using a cheap yet powerful Pyramid-ERNIE architecture. Then we endow an innovative paradigm to finely exploit the large-scale noisy and biased post-click behavioral data for relevance-oriented pre-training. We also propose a human-anchored fine-tuning strategy tailored for the online ranking system, aiming to stabilize the ranking signals across various online components. Extensive offline and online experimental results show that the proposed techniques significantly boost the search engine's performance.

Text embeddings for Portuguese have no dedicated benchmark: evaluation rests on translated corpora such as English MS MARCO or on thin multilingual coverage, with native tasks scattered and unconsolidated. We introduce MTEB-PT, a benchmark of 22 native Brazilian-Portuguese tasks across seven categories (classification, multilabel classification, pair classification, semantic textual similarity, clustering, retrieval, and reranking), admitting only data created or found in Portuguese and excluding translations by construction. We evaluate 93 models spanning 23M to 27B parameters: 73 open-weight and 20 closed commercial APIs. Alongside the leaderboard we report a statistical layer for every headline comparison: per-task bootstrap confidence intervals, paired-bootstrap significance, a task- and instance-level discrimination analysis (how sharply each task separates models) adapted from Item Response Theory, and a cross-leaderboard correlation. Three findings stand out. The benchmark cleanly separates about a dozen tiers of models, though the top six are statistically too close to order. An openly licensed, self-hostable model reaches that leading tier, so strong Portuguese embedding quality does not require a commercial API. And a model's rank on the global multilingual leaderboard predicts its Portuguese rank only moderately (Spearman rho = 0.75 over 55 shared models; one model ranks 3rd there and 49th here), so a native benchmark measures something the multilingual boards do not. We release every task, our code, and a public leaderboard, so practitioners can choose Portuguese embedding models on native evidence.

This paper poses two critical issues in evaluating base models (without post-training): (1) Unstable evaluation during training: in the early stages of pre-training, the models lack the capability to answer questions as required, leading to unstable evaluation results. This instability makes it difficult to provide solid conclusions to guide the training, especially for key experiments such as data ablation and scaling law. (2) Inconsistency between base and instruct models: base models generally exhibit poorer evaluation performance compared to corresponding instruct models. This gap poses a challenge for assessing whether a base model with better evaluation can truly lead to a better instruct model. To address these issues, we propose Base model Oriented Systematic Evaluation (BOSE), a method specifically designed to optimize the evaluation of base models. Specifically, BOSE introduces two key innovations: In-Context Light-instruction Prompt (ICLiP) for open-ended tasks and Blank-ppl for multi-choice tasks with candidate options, which transforms the standard perplexity (ppl) metric into a fill-in-the-blank format to mitigate early-stage evaluation fluctuations. Furthermore, we are the first to propose Kendall's rank correlation to quantitatively measure the evaluation stability and consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that BOSE significantly enhances both the stability of evaluations during pre-training and the consistency between base and instruct models, thereby providing more reliable guidance for the LLMs' training.

The ROC curve is the major tool for assessing not only the performance but also the fairness properties of a similarity scoring function. In order to draw reliable conclusions based on empirical ROC analysis, accurately evaluating the uncertainty level related to statistical versions of the ROC curves of interest is absolutely necessary, especially for applications with considerable societal impact such as Face Recognition. In this article, we prove asymptotic guarantees for empirical ROC curves of similarity functions as well as for by-product metrics useful to assess fairness. We also explain that, because the false acceptance/rejection rates are of the form of U-statistics in the case of similarity scoring, the naive bootstrap approach may jeopardize the assessment procedure. A dedicated recentering technique must be used instead. Beyond the theoretical analysis carried out, various experiments using real face image datasets provide strong empirical evidence of the practical relevance of the methods promoted here, when applied to several ROC-based measures such as popular fairness metrics.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

We study simplified bootstrap problems for probability distributions on the infinite line and the circle. We show that the rapid convergence of the bootstrap method for problems on the infinite line is related to the fact that the smallest eigenvalue of the positive matrices in the exact solution becomes exponentially small for large matrices, while the moments grow factorially. As a result, the positivity condition is very finely tuned. For problems on the circle we show instead that the entries of the positive matrix of Fourier modes of the distribution depend linearly on the initial data of the recursion, with factorially growing coefficients. By positivity, these matrix elements are bounded in absolute value by one, so the initial data must also be fine-tuned. Additionally, we find that we can largely bypass the semi-definite program (SDP) nature of the problem on a circle by recognizing that these Fourier modes must be asymptotically exponentially small. With a simple ansatz, which we call the shoestring bootstrap, we can efficiently identify an interior point of the set of allowed matrices with much higher precision than conventional SDP bounds permit. We apply this method to solving unitary matrix model integrals by numerically constructing the orthogonal polynomials associated with the circle distribution.

Training instability remains a critical challenge in large language model (LLM) pretraining, often manifesting as sudden gradient explosions that waste significant computational resources. We study training failures in a 5M-parameter NanoGPT model scaled via μP, identifying two key phenomena preceding collapse: (1) rapid decline in weight matrix stable rank (ratio of squared Frobenius norm to squared spectral norm), and (2) increasing alignment between adjacent layer Jacobians. We prove theoretically that these two conditions jointly cause exponential gradient norm growth with network depth. To break this instability mechanism, we propose MSign, a new optimizer that periodically applies matrix sign operations to restore stable rank. Experiments on models from 5M to 3B parameters demonstrate that MSign effectively prevents training failures with a computational overhead of less than 7.0%.

LLM-as-judge is now a standard tool for scalable evaluation, but judge performance is still often summarized by a single accuracy number. This aggregate view hides the deployment conditions under which a judge succeeds or fails. We introduce Conditional Accuracy Profiling (CAP), a post-hoc diagnostic framework that decomposes pairwise LLM-judge accuracy into eight conditions organized into content sensitivity, robustness, and rationale quality. CAP is benchmark-agnostic: it can be applied directly when a benchmark provides the required annotations, approximately through task-subset proxies, or through controlled augmentation when perturbation pairs can be generated. We instantiate CAP on seven LLM judges across six pairwise judging benchmarks, including judgerEva-Standard, a controlled testbed we created to support all eight conditions. CAP exposes profile differences hidden by aggregate accuracy: on judgerEva's judge-independent Hard-Constructed subset, the two judges most sensitive to omitted qualifications rank in the bottom three of seven by overall accuracy, so omission sensitivity is not predicted by aggregate accuracy. Across benchmarks, Position Robustness shows the strongest rank stability (mean Spearman barρ{=}0.87) but is itself fragile under JudgeBench-Pro adversarial stress, showing the largest mean accuracy drop among the shared conditions, though the dominant degradation channel varies by judge. Condition-level profiles provide a more actionable basis than aggregate accuracy for selecting LLM judges.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

Stability of neural network weights is critical when training transformer models. The query and key weights are particularly problematic, as they tend to grow large without any intervention. Applying normalization to queries and keys, known as `QK norm', fixes stability issues in practice, but is not always applicable. For example, QK norm is not compatible with Multi Latent Attention (MLA) because QK norm requires full materialization of queries and keys during inference, which is not done in MLA. In this paper we suggest that controlling the changes to logits is important for stability. We show that these changes are controllable by assigning parameter-dependent learning rates to the query and key weights. We find that our cheap intervention allows us to increase the base learning rate of the network, outperform other methods in the MLA setting, and achieve performance competitive with QK norm when using Multi-head Attention.

As Learning-to-Rank (LTR) approaches primarily seek to improve ranking quality, their output scores are not scale-calibrated by design. This fundamentally limits LTR usage in score-sensitive applications. Though a simple multi-objective approach that combines a regression and a ranking objective can effectively learn scale-calibrated scores, we argue that the two objectives are not necessarily compatible, which makes the trade-off less ideal for either of them. In this paper, we propose a practical regression compatible ranking (RCR) approach that achieves a better trade-off, where the two ranking and regression components are proved to be mutually aligned. Although the same idea applies to ranking with both binary and graded relevance, we mainly focus on binary labels in this paper. We evaluate the proposed approach on several public LTR benchmarks and show that it consistently achieves either best or competitive result in terms of both regression and ranking metrics, and significantly improves the Pareto frontiers in the context of multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, we evaluated the proposed approach on YouTube Search and found that it not only improved the ranking quality of the production pCTR model, but also brought gains to the click prediction accuracy. The proposed approach has been successfully deployed in the YouTube production system.

We identify first-mover bias -- path-dependent concentration of SHAP feature importance from sequential residual fitting in gradient boosting -- as a mechanistic contributor to attribution instability under multicollinearity. Scaling up a single model amplifies this effect: a Large Single Model matching our method's total tree count produces the poorest attribution reproducibility of any approach tested. We show that model independence largely neutralizes first-mover bias. Both DASH (Diversified Aggregation of SHAP) and simple seed-averaging (Stochastic Retrain) restore stability by breaking the sequential dependency chain. At rho=0.9, both achieve stability ~0.977, while Single Best degrades to 0.958 and LSM to 0.938. On Breast Cancer, DASH improves stability from 0.376 to 0.925 (+0.549), outperforming Stochastic Retrain by +0.063. Under nonlinear DGPs, the advantage emerges at rho>=0.7. DASH provides two diagnostic tools -- the Feature Stability Index and Importance-Stability Plot -- that detect first-mover bias without ground truth. A crossed ANOVA with formal F-statistics confirms the mechanism: DASH shifts variance from model-dominated (40.6%) to data-dominated (73.6%). Software at https://github.com/DrakeCaraker/dash-shap

Experiments with pre-trained models such as BERT are often based on a single checkpoint. While the conclusions drawn apply to the artifact tested in the experiment (i.e., the particular instance of the model), it is not always clear whether they hold for the more general procedure which includes the architecture, training data, initialization scheme, and loss function. Recent work has shown that repeating the pre-training process can lead to substantially different performance, suggesting that an alternate strategy is needed to make principled statements about procedures. To enable researchers to draw more robust conclusions, we introduce the MultiBERTs, a set of 25 BERT-Base checkpoints, trained with similar hyper-parameters as the original BERT model but differing in random weight initialization and shuffling of training data. We also define the Multi-Bootstrap, a non-parametric bootstrap method for statistical inference designed for settings where there are multiple pre-trained models and limited test data. To illustrate our approach, we present a case study of gender bias in coreference resolution, in which the Multi-Bootstrap lets us measure effects that may not be detected with a single checkpoint. We release our models and statistical library along with an additional set of 140 intermediate checkpoints captured during pre-training to facilitate research on learning dynamics.

Nowadays, state-of-the-art learning-to-rank (LTR) methods are based on gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT). The most well-known algorithm is LambdaMART that was proposed more than a decade ago. Recently, several other GBDT-based ranking algorithms were proposed. In this paper, we conduct a thorough analysis of these methods in a unified setup. In particular, we address the following questions. Is direct optimization of a smoothed ranking loss preferable over optimizing a convex surrogate? How to properly construct and smooth surrogate ranking losses? To address these questions, we compare LambdaMART with YetiRank and StochasticRank methods and their modifications. We also improve the YetiRank approach to allow for optimizing specific ranking loss functions. As a result, we gain insights into learning-to-rank approaches and obtain a new state-of-the-art algorithm.

Language models for program synthesis are usually trained and evaluated on programming competition datasets (MBPP, APPS). However, these datasets are limited in size and quality, while these language models are extremely data hungry. Additionally, the language models have a misaligned program synthesis process compared to humans. While humans iteratively develop code with the help of a compiler, most program synthesis models currently produce code in one go. To solve these issues, we introduce a bootstrapping algorithm for program synthesis, that supports teaching models how to repair. We show that bootstrapping consistently outperforms regular fine-tuning. Compared to other work, our bootstrapped model performs on par with fine-tuned models that are 68\% larger. Notably, bootstrapping with repairing also improves non-repairing performance compared to regular bootstrapping during inference. However, on our models, repairing during inference is likely inferior to simply sampling the same number of solutions. Furthermore, we find that there are issues with the example test cases in the training portion of the APPS dataset that are valuable to the community, as many repairing and reinforcement learning methods rely on them.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Many language-based applications need a probability distribution over a small set of decisions rather than an open-ended response. We present Chinese Decision, a family of Chinese-language decision models that adapts pretrained causal language models to this interface. Each question is compiled into a shared instruction-and-candidate prompt; a single forward pass reads the final-position logits of the candidate letters and normalizes them over the valid options, without autoregressive answer generation. The interface covers Boolean judgments, categorical choices, and ordinal scores. We report three completed members built on Qwen3.5 0.8B, 2B, and 4B backbones, each trained for one epoch on the same 13.048 million decisions and released with a validation-fitted temperature and a Q8_0 quantization. On the full 307,900-decision CJ-Bench, the 4B model reaches 85.97% overall accuracy, 75.69% general-domain accuracy, and 84.00% average accuracy across medicine, law, and finance with a single checkpoint, above every reported baseline in each domain, at 1.00% expected calibration error. Between the 2B and 4B members, which share data, objective, and minimum batch, parent-clustered paired bootstrap intervals show gains in all four domains, largest in the two low-resource domains (+8.5 and +7.1 points), whereas the 2B gain over 0.8B in law is not statistically resolved. Analyses of the stored predictions further show that a single global temperature lowers pooled calibration error while worsening some domains, that larger members rank their own errors better for selective prediction, and that merging and quantization each change 0.4-1.1% of top-1 predictions while leaving aggregate metrics nearly unchanged. All comparisons rest on single training runs and imported baselines.

Ranking has always been one of the top concerns in information retrieval researches. For decades, the lexical matching signal has dominated the ad-hoc retrieval process, but solely using this signal in retrieval may cause the vocabulary mismatch problem. In recent years, with the development of representation learning techniques, many researchers turn to Dense Retrieval (DR) models for better ranking performance. Although several existing DR models have already obtained promising results, their performance improvement heavily relies on the sampling of training examples. Many effective sampling strategies are not efficient enough for practical usage, and for most of them, there still lacks theoretical analysis in how and why performance improvement happens. To shed light on these research questions, we theoretically investigate different training strategies for DR models and try to explain why hard negative sampling performs better than random sampling. Through the analysis, we also find that there are many potential risks in static hard negative sampling, which is employed by many existing training methods. Therefore, we propose two training strategies named a Stable Training Algorithm for dense Retrieval (STAR) and a query-side training Algorithm for Directly Optimizing Ranking pErformance (ADORE), respectively. STAR improves the stability of DR training process by introducing random negatives. ADORE replaces the widely-adopted static hard negative sampling method with a dynamic one to directly optimize the ranking performance. Experimental results on two publicly available retrieval benchmark datasets show that either strategy gains significant improvements over existing competitive baselines and a combination of them leads to the best performance.

The ``LLM-as-a-judge'' paradigm has become a standard method for evaluating open-ended generation. To address the quadratic scalability costs of pairwise comparisons, popular benchmarks like Arena-Hard and AlpacaEval compare all models against a single anchor. However, despite its widespread use, the impact of anchor selection on the reliability of the results remains largely unexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate the effect of anchor selection by evaluating 22 different anchors on the Arena-Hard-v2.0 dataset. We find that the choice of anchor is critical: a poor anchor can dramatically reduce correlation with human rankings. We identify that common anchor choices (best-performing and worst-performing models) make poor anchors. Because these extreme anchors are consistently better or worse than all other models, they are seldom indicative of the relative ranking of the models. We further quantify the effect size of anchor selection, showing it is comparable to the selection of a judge model. We conclude with actionable recommendations. First, we conduct a power analysis, and compute sufficient benchmark sizes for anchor-based evaluation, finding that standard benchmark sizes are insufficient for pairwise evaluation and fail to distinguish between competitive models reliably. Second, we provide guidelines for selecting informative anchors to ensure reliable and efficient evaluation practices.

A plethora of sentence embedding models makes it challenging to choose one, especially for domains such as telecom, rich with specialized vocabulary. We evaluate multiple embeddings obtained from publicly available models and their domain-adapted variants, on both point retrieval accuracies as well as their (95\%) confidence intervals. We establish a systematic method to obtain thresholds for similarity scores for different embeddings. We observe that fine-tuning improves mean bootstrapped accuracies as well as tightens confidence intervals. The pre-training combined with fine-tuning makes confidence intervals even tighter. To understand these variations, we analyse and report significant correlations between the distributional overlap between top-K, correct and random sentence similarities with retrieval accuracies and similarity thresholds. Following current literature, we analyze if retrieval accuracy variations can be attributed to isotropy of embeddings. Our conclusions are that isotropy of embeddings (as measured by two independent state-of-the-art isotropy metric definitions) cannot be attributed to better retrieval performance. However, domain adaptation which improves retrieval accuracies also improves isotropy. We establish that domain adaptation moves domain specific embeddings further away from general domain embeddings.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

While orthogonal subspace methods try to mitigate task interference in Continual Learning (CL), they often suffer from energy diffusion across the basis, hindering knowledge compaction and exhausting capacity for future tasks. We observe that output feature drift induced by parameter updates is inherently low-rank, and theoretically prove that preserving parameters along the principal directions of this drift minimizes the output reconstruction error. Motivated by this, we propose Energy-Concentrated and Energy-Ordered Low-Rank Adaptation (E^2-LoRA). By explicitly ordering and concentrating knowledge into leading ranks, E^2-LoRA frees capacity for subsequent tasks. Furthermore, we design a dynamic rank allocation strategy to balance stability and plasticity by jointly optimizing energy retention and model plasticity. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that E^2-LoRA achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of well-calibrated probabilities from modern classification models. We propose a novel conformal prediction method that employs a rank-based score function suitable for classification models that predict the order of labels correctly, even if not well-calibrated. Our approach constructs prediction sets that achieve the desired coverage rate while managing their size. We provide a theoretical analysis of the expected size of the conformal prediction sets based on the rank distribution of the underlying classifier. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method outperforms existing techniques on various datasets, providing reliable uncertainty quantification. Our contributions include a novel conformal prediction method, theoretical analysis, and empirical evaluation. This work advances the practical deployment of machine learning systems by enabling reliable uncertainty quantification.

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

A social highlighter's most useful signal -- which passages a crowd of readers marks -- exists only for documents people have already read. Can the aggregate crowd salience of a document be predicted from its text before its marks accumulate? Prior work on this data found that zero-shot language models recover highlight locations worse than a trivial lead (position) baseline, so we ask whether a model trained on the highlight corpus can beat that baseline. Using a pre-registered ladder of models and a by-document cluster bootstrap, we find a small but robust edge: a logistic ranker over sentence embeddings and positional/contextual features beats the lead baseline by +0.044 average precision (95% CI [+0.029, +0.058]; clears a pre-registered margin delta=0.03 in 97% of resamples, and stable across pipeline re-runs). Two unsupervised extractive baselines (centroid, LexRank-style centrality) lose to lead, and the trained model beats them by +0.108, so the edge is not recovered by generic unsupervised proxies -- it reflects learning from real reader marks. In product terms, precision@3 rises from 0.25 to 0.39 (+55% relative) and the model beats lead on 69% of documents. An ablation attributes the edge to the raw embedding (+0.014) and training augmentation (+0.010), each with a positive CI. The edge is not a temporal-generalization failure, and we find no evidence that content drift or near-duplicate leakage explains it. A standardized regression shows the advantage is governed mainly by document popularity (lower popularity, larger edge) and by label reliability. It nearly vanishes only on the most popular content; there it is the lead baseline that strengthens, not the model that weakens. Because our evaluation conditions on documents that eventually accumulated readers, these results are a retrospective cold-start simulation.

Recent work suggests that (stochastic) gradient descent self-organizes near an instability boundary, shaping both optimization and the solutions found. Momentum and mini-batch gradients are widely used in practical deep learning optimization, but it remains unclear whether they operate in a comparable regime of instability. We demonstrate that SGD with momentum exhibits an Edge of Stochastic Stability (EoSS)-like regime with batch-size-dependent behavior that cannot be explained by a single momentum-adjusted stability threshold. Batch Sharpness (the expected directional mini-batch curvature) stabilizes in two distinct regimes: at small batch sizes it converges to a lower plateau 2(1-β)/η, reflecting amplification of stochastic fluctuations by momentum and favoring flatter regions than vanilla SGD; at large batch sizes it converges to a higher plateau 2(1+β)/η, where momentum recovers its classical stabilizing effect and favors sharper regions consistent with full-batch dynamics. We further show that this aligns with linear stability thresholds and discuss the implications for hyperparameter tuning and coupling.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) is a standard way to adapt multimodal large language models, yet extremely low-rank settings -- especially rank-1 LoRA -- are often unstable. We show that this instability is not solely due to limited capacity: in the rank-1 regime, optimization is highly sensitive to the update direction. Concretely, pretrained vision and text features form mismatched anisotropic regions, yielding a dominant "gap" direction that acts like a translation component and disproportionately steers early gradients under rank-1 constraints. Analyzing pretrained representations, we identify a modality-gap axis that dominates early gradient flow, while a random rank-1 initialization is unlikely to align with it, leading to weak gradients and training collapse. We propose Gap-Init, a geometry-aware initialization that aligns the rank-1 LoRA direction with an estimated modality-gap vector from a small calibration set, while keeping the initial LoRA update zero. Across multiple vision-language tasks and backbones, Gap-Init consistently stabilizes rank-1 training and can match or outperform strong rank-8 baselines. Our results suggest that at the extreme low-rank limit, initial alignment can matter as much as rank itself.

Text-to-image generative models have garnered immense attention for their ability to produce high-fidelity images from text prompts. Among these, Stable Diffusion distinguishes itself as a leading open-source model in this fast-growing field. However, the intricacies of fine-tuning these models pose multiple challenges from new methodology integration to systematic evaluation. Addressing these issues, this paper introduces LyCORIS (Lora beYond Conventional methods, Other Rank adaptation Implementations for Stable diffusion) [https://github.com/KohakuBlueleaf/LyCORIS], an open-source library that offers a wide selection of fine-tuning methodologies for Stable Diffusion. Furthermore, we present a thorough framework for the systematic assessment of varied fine-tuning techniques. This framework employs a diverse suite of metrics and delves into multiple facets of fine-tuning, including hyperparameter adjustments and the evaluation with different prompt types across various concept categories. Through this comprehensive approach, our work provides essential insights into the nuanced effects of fine-tuning parameters, bridging the gap between state-of-the-art research and practical application.

Conventional multi-label classification (MLC) methods assume that all samples are fully labeled and identically distributed. Unfortunately, this assumption is unrealistic in large-scale MLC data that has long-tailed (LT) distribution and partial labels (PL). To address the problem, we introduce a novel task, Partial labeling and Long-Tailed Multi-Label Classification (PLT-MLC), to jointly consider the above two imperfect learning environments. Not surprisingly, we find that most LT-MLC and PL-MLC approaches fail to solve the PLT-MLC, resulting in significant performance degradation on the two proposed PLT-MLC benchmarks. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end learning framework: COrrection rightarrow ModificatIon rightarrow balanCe, abbreviated as \method{}. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to simultaneously correct the missing labels (Correction) with convinced prediction confidence over a class-aware threshold and to learn from these recall labels during training. We next propose a novel multi-focal modifier loss that simultaneously addresses head-tail imbalance and positive-negative imbalance to adaptively modify the attention to different samples (Modification) under the LT class distribution. In addition, we develop a balanced training strategy by distilling the model's learning effect from head and tail samples, and thus design a balanced classifier (Balance) conditioned on the head and tail learning effect to maintain stable performance for all samples. Our experimental study shows that the proposed significantly outperforms general MLC, LT-MLC and PL-MLC methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness on our newly created PLT-MLC datasets.

In the landscape of Recommender System (RS) applications, reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a powerful tool, primarily due to its proficiency in optimizing long-term rewards. Nevertheless, it suffers from instability in the learning process, stemming from the intricate interactions among bootstrapping, off-policy training, and function approximation. Moreover, in multi-reward recommendation scenarios, designing a proper reward setting that reconciles the inner dynamics of various tasks is quite intricate. In response to these challenges, we introduce DT4IER, an advanced decision transformer-based recommendation model that is engineered to not only elevate the effectiveness of recommendations but also to achieve a harmonious balance between immediate user engagement and long-term retention. The DT4IER applies an innovative multi-reward design that adeptly balances short and long-term rewards with user-specific attributes, which serve to enhance the contextual richness of the reward sequence ensuring a more informed and personalized recommendation process. To enhance its predictive capabilities, DT4IER incorporates a high-dimensional encoder, skillfully designed to identify and leverage the intricate interrelations across diverse tasks. Furthermore, we integrate a contrastive learning approach within the action embedding predictions, a strategy that significantly boosts the model's overall performance. Experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DT4IER against state-of-the-art Sequential Recommender Systems (SRSs) and Multi-Task Learning (MTL) models in terms of both prediction accuracy and effectiveness in specific tasks. The source code is accessible online to facilitate replication

In this paper, we study the implicit regularization of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) through the lens of {\em dynamical stability} (Wu et al., 2018). We start by revising existing stability analyses of SGD, showing how the Frobenius norm and trace of Hessian relate to different notions of stability. Notably, if a global minimum is linearly stable for SGD, then the trace of Hessian must be less than or equal to 2/eta, where eta denotes the learning rate. By contrast, for gradient descent (GD), the stability imposes a similar constraint but only on the largest eigenvalue of Hessian. We then turn to analyze the generalization properties of these stable minima, focusing specifically on two-layer ReLU networks and diagonal linear networks. Notably, we establish the {\em equivalence} between these metrics of sharpness and certain parameter norms for the two models, which allows us to show that the stable minima of SGD provably generalize well. By contrast, the stability-induced regularization of GD is provably too weak to ensure satisfactory generalization. This discrepancy provides an explanation of why SGD often generalizes better than GD. Note that the learning rate (LR) plays a pivotal role in the strength of stability-induced regularization. As the LR increases, the regularization effect becomes more pronounced, elucidating why SGD with a larger LR consistently demonstrates superior generalization capabilities. Additionally, numerical experiments are provided to support our theoretical findings.

As interactive LLM-based applications are created and refined, model developers need to evaluate the quality of generated text along many possible axes. For simpler systems, human evaluation may be practical, but in complicated systems like conversational chatbots, the amount of generated text can overwhelm human annotation resources. Model developers have begun to rely heavily on auto-evaluation, where LLMs are also used to judge generation quality. However, existing LLM-as-a-judge benchmarks largely focus on simple Q\&A tasks that do not match the complexity of multi-turn conversations. We introduce RankJudge, a benchmark generator for evaluating LLM-as-a-judge on multi-turn conversations grounded in reference documents. RankJudge creates pairs of conversations where one conversation has a single flaw injected into one turn. This construction allows paired conversations to be labeled unambiguously as better or worse, and precisely isolates failure categories to individual turns, enabling a strict joint correctness criterion for judging. We implement RankJudge across the domains of machine learning, biomedicine, and finance, evaluate 21 frontier LLM judges, and rank those judges via the Bradley-Terry model. Our formulation also allows ranking each conversation pair with difficulty ratings, which we use to dynamically curate the evaluation slice to reduce label noise, as confirmed via human annotation. We find that judge rankings are stable under partial observability, coarser correctness criteria, and an alternative random-walk rating algorithm.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

Learning to Rank (LTR) algorithms are usually evaluated using Information Retrieval metrics like Normalised Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) or Mean Average Precision. As these metrics rely on sorting predicted items' scores (and thus, on items' ranks), their derivatives are either undefined or zero everywhere. This makes them unsuitable for gradient-based optimisation, which is the usual method of learning appropriate scoring functions. Commonly used LTR loss functions are only loosely related to the evaluation metrics, causing a mismatch between the optimisation objective and the evaluation criterion. In this paper, we address this mismatch by proposing NeuralNDCG, a novel differentiable approximation to NDCG. Since NDCG relies on the non-differentiable sorting operator, we obtain NeuralNDCG by relaxing that operator using NeuralSort, a differentiable approximation of sorting. As a result, we obtain a new ranking loss function which is an arbitrarily accurate approximation to the evaluation metric, thus closing the gap between the training and the evaluation of LTR models. We introduce two variants of the proposed loss function. Finally, the empirical evaluation shows that our proposed method outperforms previous work aimed at direct optimisation of NDCG and is competitive with the state-of-the-art methods.

Large language models can arrive at the same answer through reasoning paths that are unstable, contradictory, or difficult to rank consistently -- a failure mode especially prevalent in multi-step deductive reasoning. Existing methods assess reliability primarily through output dispersion -- measuring how much sampled answers differ -- but this discards a complementary signal: whether the model can consistently rank competing reasoning candidates. We propose structural uncertainty, a consistency-aware framework derived from the stability of self-preference-induced rankings over sampled reasoning solutions. Given a query, we generate multiple candidate solutions and ask the model to judge pairwise preferences among its own outputs. We aggregate self-preferences into ranking distributions via Bradley-Terry modeling with PageRank, and decompose the signal into two entropy-based components: across-trial ranking instability and within-trial candidate ambiguity. Across five LLMs and eight benchmarks, structural signals provide information complementary to answer dispersion: on logical and mathematical reasoning tasks, the combination improves identification of unreliable instances, while on factual retrieval the structural signal collapses toward uniformity, diagnosing a regime boundary where reasoning-level consistency evaluation is uninformative. The two components relate differently to accuracy: within-trial ambiguity correlates positively with correctness -- consistent with settings where multiple plausible solution paths remain competitive -- while across-trial instability correlates negatively, signaling unreliable reasoning. Structural uncertainty is best understood not as a universal confidence estimator, but as a regime-sensitive evaluator of logical reasoning consistency.

Bootstrap aggregating (bagging) is an effective ensemble protocol, which is believed can enhance robustness by its majority voting mechanism. Recent works further prove the sample-wise robustness certificates for certain forms of bagging (e.g. partition aggregation). Beyond these particular forms, in this paper, we propose the first collective certification for general bagging to compute the tight robustness against the global poisoning attack. Specifically, we compute the maximum number of simultaneously changed predictions via solving a binary integer linear programming (BILP) problem. Then we analyze the robustness of vanilla bagging and give the upper bound of the tolerable poison budget. Based on this analysis, we propose hash bagging to improve the robustness of vanilla bagging almost for free. This is achieved by modifying the random subsampling in vanilla bagging to a hash-based deterministic subsampling, as a way of controlling the influence scope for each poisoning sample universally. Our extensive experiments show the notable advantage in terms of applicability and robustness.

Recurrent models are a popular choice for video enhancement tasks such as video denoising or super-resolution. In this work, we focus on their stability as dynamical systems and show that they tend to fail catastrophically at inference time on long video sequences. To address this issue, we (1) introduce a diagnostic tool which produces input sequences optimized to trigger instabilities and that can be interpreted as visualizations of temporal receptive fields, and (2) propose two approaches to enforce the stability of a model during training: constraining the spectral norm or constraining the stable rank of its convolutional layers. We then introduce Stable Rank Normalization for Convolutional layers (SRN-C), a new algorithm that enforces these constraints. Our experimental results suggest that SRN-C successfully enforces stability in recurrent video processing models without a significant performance loss.

Fine-tuning pre-trained models has been ubiquitously proven to be effective in a wide range of NLP tasks. However, fine-tuning the whole model is parameter inefficient as it always yields an entirely new model for each task. Currently, many research works propose to only fine-tune a small portion of the parameters while keeping most of the parameters shared across different tasks. These methods achieve surprisingly good performance and are shown to be more stable than their corresponding fully fine-tuned counterparts. However, such kind of methods is still not well understood. Some natural questions arise: How does the parameter sparsity lead to promising performance? Why is the model more stable than the fully fine-tuned models? How to choose the tunable parameters? In this paper, we first categorize the existing methods into random approaches, rule-based approaches, and projection-based approaches based on how they choose which parameters to tune. Then, we show that all of the methods are actually sparse fine-tuned models and conduct a novel theoretical analysis of them. We indicate that the sparsity is actually imposing a regularization on the original model by controlling the upper bound of the stability. Such stability leads to better generalization capability which has been empirically observed in a lot of recent research works. Despite the effectiveness of sparsity grounded by our theory, it still remains an open problem of how to choose the tunable parameters. To better choose the tunable parameters, we propose a novel Second-order Approximation Method (SAM) which approximates the original problem with an analytically solvable optimization function. The tunable parameters are determined by directly optimizing the approximation function. The experimental results show that our proposed SAM model outperforms many strong baseline models and it also verifies our theoretical analysis.

With the growth of model and data sizes, a broad effort has been made to design pruning techniques that reduce the resource demand of deep learning pipelines, while retaining model performance. In order to reduce both inference and training costs, a prominent line of work uses low-rank matrix factorizations to represent the network weights. Although able to retain accuracy, we observe that low-rank methods tend to compromise model robustness against adversarial perturbations. By modeling robustness in terms of the condition number of the neural network, we argue that this loss of robustness is due to the exploding singular values of the low-rank weight matrices. Thus, we introduce a robust low-rank training algorithm that maintains the network's weights on the low-rank matrix manifold while simultaneously enforcing approximate orthonormal constraints. The resulting model reduces both training and inference costs while ensuring well-conditioning and thus better adversarial robustness, without compromising model accuracy. This is shown by extensive numerical evidence and by our main approximation theorem that shows the computed robust low-rank network well-approximates the ideal full model, provided a highly performing low-rank sub-network exists.

Portuguese Information Retrieval (IR) lacks public datasets, and relevance assessment for specialized collections remains costly. While Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly support relevance assessment, their reliability in non-English specialized domains remains unclear. We introduce NormasTCU (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LeandroRibeiro/NormasTCU), a Brazilian Portuguese IR dataset with 14,469 legal documents, 46 queries, and 3,048 human judgments over 812 query-document pairs. Using NormasTCU, we evaluated LLM-as-a-judge for relevance assessment by prompting three models with two prompt techniques to grade these pairs. We then compared the rankings of 15 IR systems derived from LLM-generated and human reference qrels. LLMs consistently showed a positive scoring bias (mean absolute error: 0.46--0.66 on a 0-2 scale). Furthermore, pair-level agreement with human judgments achieved only fair to moderate levels, with Cohen's kappa ranging from 0.32 to 0.53. Despite this bias, LLM-generated judgments often yielded highly similar system rankings for nDCG@10 and MRR (observed Kendall's tau greater than or equal 0.90, although the bootstrap confidence intervals did not always remain above this threshold), but were less reliable for P@10 and R@10. Notably, LLM-based rankings were sometimes more strongly correlated with the reference ranking than individual human annotations were. As a practical implication, our results suggest that LLMs could effectively support scalable relevance assessment in specialized Portuguese corpora when evaluated using nDCG or MRR (rank-aware metrics), but they should be avoided when relying on precision or recall.

Code agents increasingly help developers work with unfamiliar repositories, but every such task depends on a costly prerequisite: bootstrapping the repository into a usable development state. This process requires substantial trial-and-error exploration, yet the resulting knowledge--resolved dependencies, repair strategies--stays trapped in a single conversation, unavailable to future agents. We therefore formulate repository bootstrapping as a reusable startup knowledge problem and introduce BootstrapAgent, a multi-agent framework that distills the heuristics discovered during bootstrap exploration into a persistent, verifiable, agent-consumable .bootstrap contract. Through evidence extraction, structured planning, deterministic Docker-based verification, and trace-driven repair, BootstrapAgent generates a contract covering environment setup, diagnostic checks, minimal verification, and accumulated repair knowledge. We further propose warm repair with clean replay to accelerate iterative debugging without sacrificing cold-start reproducibility, and a delta repair with sanity check to prevent reward hacking. Experiments on three benchmarks show that BootstrapAgent achieves a 92.9% success rate, outperforming the baseline by over 10% while reducing downstream agent token usage by 25.9% and build time by 22.3%. Our code is available at https://github.com/Vossera/BootstrapAgent.

AI arenas, which rank generative models from pairwise preferences of users, are a popular method for measuring the relative performance of models in the course of their organic use. Because rankings are computed from noisy preferences, there is a concern that model producers can exploit this randomness by submitting many models (e.g., multiple variants of essentially the same model) and thereby artificially improve the rank of their top models. This can lead to degradations in the quality, and therefore the usefulness, of the ranking. In this paper, we begin by establishing, both theoretically and in simulations calibrated to data from the platform Arena (formerly LMArena, Chatbot Arena), conditions under which producers can benefit from submitting clones when their goal is to be ranked highly. We then propose a new mechanism for ranking models from pairwise comparisons, called You-Rank-We-Rank (YRWR). It requires that producers submit rankings over their own models and uses these rankings to correct statistical estimates of model quality. We prove that this mechanism is approximately clone-robust, in the sense that a producer cannot improve their rank much by doing anything other than submitting each of their unique models exactly once. Moreover, to the extent that model producers are able to correctly rank their own models, YRWR improves overall ranking accuracy. In further simulations, we show that indeed the mechanism is approximately clone-robust and quantify improvements to ranking accuracy, even under producer misranking.

The rapid release of both language models and benchmarks makes it increasingly costly to evaluate every model on every dataset. In practice, models are often evaluated on different samples, making scores difficult to compare across studies. To address this, we propose a framework based on multidimensional Item Response Theory (IRT) that uses anchor items to calibrate new benchmarks to the evaluation suite while holding previously calibrated item parameters fixed. Our approach supports a realistic evaluation setting in which datasets are introduced over time and models are evaluated only on the datasets available at the time of evaluation, while a fixed anchor set for each dataset is used so that results from different evaluation periods can be compared directly. In large-scale experiments on more than 400 models, our framework predicts full-evaluation performance within 2-3 percentage points using only 100 anchor questions per dataset, with Spearman ρgeq 0.9 for ranking preservation, showing that it is possible to extend benchmark suites over time while preserving score comparability, at a constant evaluation cost per new dataset. Code available at https://github.com/eliyahabba/growing-pains

In order to evaluate the prevalence of security and privacy practices on a representative sample of the Web, researchers rely on website popularity rankings such as the Alexa list. While the validity and representativeness of these rankings are rarely questioned, our findings show the contrary: we show for four main rankings how their inherent properties (similarity, stability, representativeness, responsiveness and benignness) affect their composition and therefore potentially skew the conclusions made in studies. Moreover, we find that it is trivial for an adversary to manipulate the composition of these lists. We are the first to empirically validate that the ranks of domains in each of the lists are easily altered, in the case of Alexa through as little as a single HTTP request. This allows adversaries to manipulate rankings on a large scale and insert malicious domains into whitelists or bend the outcome of research studies to their will. To overcome the limitations of such rankings, we propose improvements to reduce the fluctuations in list composition and guarantee better defenses against manipulation. To allow the research community to work with reliable and reproducible rankings, we provide Tranco, an improved ranking that we offer through an online service available at https://tranco-list.eu.

We present an efficient algorithm for simultaneously training sparse generalized linear models across many related problems, which may arise from bootstrapping, cross-validation and nonparametric permutation testing. Our approach leverages the redundancies across problems to obtain significant computational improvements relative to solving the problems sequentially by a conventional algorithm. We demonstrate our fast simultaneous training of generalized linear models (FaSTGLZ) algorithm on a number of real-world datasets, and we run otherwise computationally intensive bootstrapping and permutation test analyses that are typically necessary for obtaining statistically rigorous classification results and meaningful interpretation. Code is freely available at http://liinc.bme.columbia.edu/fastglz.

We introduce IndiaFinBench, to our knowledge the first publicly available evaluation benchmark for assessing large language model (LLM) performance on Indian financial regulatory text. Existing financial NLP benchmarks draw exclusively from Western financial corpora (SEC filings, US earnings reports, and English-language financial news), leaving a significant gap in coverage of non-Western regulatory frameworks. IndiaFinBench addresses this gap with 406 expert-annotated question-answer pairs drawn from 192 documents sourced from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), spanning four task types: regulatory interpretation (174 items), numerical reasoning (92 items), contradiction detection (62 items), and temporal reasoning (78 items). Annotation quality is validated through a model-based secondary pass (kappa=0.918 on contradiction detection) and a 60-item human inter-annotator agreement evaluation (kappa=0.611; 76.7% overall agreement). We evaluate twelve models under zero-shot conditions, with accuracy ranging from 70.4% (Gemma 4 E4B) to 89.7% (Gemini 2.5 Flash). All models substantially outperform a non-specialist human baseline of 60.0%. Numerical reasoning is the most discriminative task, with a 35.9 percentage-point spread across models. Bootstrap significance testing (10,000 resamples) reveals three statistically distinct performance tiers. The dataset, evaluation code, and all model outputs are available at https://github.com/rajveerpall/IndiaFinBench

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has significantly advanced parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large pretrained models. LoRA augments the pre-trained weights of a model by adding the product of two smaller matrices that together form a low-rank matrix update. Recent research has shown that scale disparities between these two matrices often cause unstable training dynamics, leading to suboptimal performance. In this paper, we propose SingLoRA, which reformulates low-rank adaptation by learning the weights update as a decomposition of a single low-rank matrix multiplied by its transpose. This simple design inherently removes inter-matrix scale conflicts, ensuring stable optimization, and roughly halves the parameter count. We analyze SingLoRA within the infinite-width neural network framework, showing that it guarantees stable feature learning by construction. Extensive experiments on multiple tasks validate these benefits. In common sense reasoning, fine-tuning LLama 7B on MNLI with SingLoRA achieves 91.3% accuracy - surpassing LoRA (89.1%) and LoRA+ (90.2%) - while using only 60% of their parameter budget. In image generation, fine-tuning Stable Diffusion with SingLoRA significantly improves image fidelity on DreamBooth, achieving a DINO similarity score of 0.151, compared to scores of 0.148 and 0.143 for DoRA and LoRA, respectively.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

The use of target networks is a popular approach for estimating value functions in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). While effective, the target network remains a compromise solution that preserves stability at the cost of slowly moving targets, thus delaying learning. Conversely, using the online network as a bootstrapped target is intuitively appealing, albeit well-known to lead to unstable learning. In this work, we aim to obtain the best out of both worlds by introducing a novel update rule that computes the target using the MINimum estimate between the Target and Online network, giving rise to our method, MINTO. Through this simple, yet effective modification, we show that MINTO enables faster and stable value function learning, by mitigating the potential overestimation bias of using the online network for bootstrapping. Notably, MINTO can be seamlessly integrated into a wide range of value-based and actor-critic algorithms with a negligible cost. We evaluate MINTO extensively across diverse benchmarks, spanning online and offline RL, as well as discrete and continuous action spaces. Across all benchmarks, MINTO consistently improves performance, demonstrating its broad applicability and effectiveness.

Creating test collections for offline retrieval evaluation requires human effort to judge documents' relevance. This expensive activity motivated much work in developing methods for constructing benchmarks with fewer assessment costs. In this respect, adjudication methods actively decide both which documents and the order in which experts review them, in order to better exploit the assessment budget or to lower it. Researchers evaluate the quality of those methods by measuring the correlation between the known gold ranking of systems under the full collection and the observed ranking of systems under the lower-cost one. This traditional analysis ignores whether and how the low-cost judgements impact on the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to the full collection. We fill this void by proposing a novel methodology to evaluate how the low-cost adjudication methods preserve the pairwise significant differences between systems as the full collection. In other terms, while traditional approaches look for stability in answering the question "is system A better than system B?", our proposed approach looks for stability in answering the question "is system A significantly better than system B?", which is the ultimate questions researchers need to answer to guarantee the generalisability of their results. Among other results, we found that the best methods in terms of ranking of systems correlation do not always match those preserving statistical significance.

Practitioners who wish to build real-world applications that rely on ranking models, need to decide which modelling paradigm to follow. This is not an easy choice to make, as the research literature on this topic has been shifting in recent years. In particular, whilst Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) have reigned supreme for more than a decade, the flexibility of neural networks has allowed them to catch up, and recent works report accuracy metrics that are on par. Nevertheless, practical systems require considerations beyond mere accuracy metrics to decide on a modelling approach. This work describes our experiences in balancing some of the trade-offs that arise, presenting a case study on a short-video recommendation application. We highlight (1) neural networks' ability to handle large training data size, user- and item-embeddings allows for more accurate models than GBDTs in this setting, and (2) because GBDTs are less reliant on specialised hardware, they can provide an equally accurate model at a lower cost. We believe these findings are of relevance to researchers in both academia and industry, and hope they can inspire practitioners who need to make similar modelling choices in the future.

Gene perturbation models aim to predict transcriptional responses to unseen genetic interventions, but comparisons rely on heterogeneous evaluation metrics and differentially-expressed (DE) gene subsets. We investigate the consequences of these choices using eight methods across six single-gene perturbation datasets under a unified evaluation protocol. Varying the number of top DE genes reveals substantial instability in Precision-based rankings, with the winning method changing 86.7% of the time, while rankings based on the rest of the metrics remain comparatively stable. Investigating this discrepancy exposes that repeating a single predicted expression profile across cell-level rows, a standard practice for many methods, can inflate significance estimates and produce excessively large predicted significant-DE sets. Specifically we found that 67.1% of tested perturbation--gene pairs pass the significance threshold despite some of them having minuscule effects. We derive an inflation factor showing that replicated predictions can amplify the standardized Mann--Whitney statistic even after correction for tied ranks, without adding independent information. This artifact changes Precision mainly as the number of DE genes increases because for smaller cutoffs, most of the genes are already significant due to the effect-based ordering. Taking this pitfall into account in our benchmark comparison, we find that a random forest using Gene Ontology features achieves the best overall results.

Pre-training and fine-tuning have achieved significant advances in the information retrieval (IR). A typical approach is to fine-tune all the parameters of large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) on downstream tasks. As the model size and the number of tasks increase greatly, such approach becomes less feasible and prohibitively expensive. Recently, a variety of parameter-efficient tuning methods have been proposed in natural language processing (NLP) that only fine-tune a small number of parameters while still attaining strong performance. Yet there has been little effort to explore parameter-efficient tuning for IR. In this work, we first conduct a comprehensive study of existing parameter-efficient tuning methods at both the retrieval and re-ranking stages. Unlike the promising results in NLP, we find that these methods cannot achieve comparable performance to full fine-tuning at both stages when updating less than 1\% of the original model parameters. More importantly, we find that the existing methods are just parameter-efficient, but not learning-efficient as they suffer from unstable training and slow convergence. To analyze the underlying reason, we conduct a theoretical analysis and show that the separation of the inserted trainable modules makes the optimization difficult. To alleviate this issue, we propose to inject additional modules alongside the PTM to make the original scattered modules connected. In this way, all the trainable modules can form a pathway to smooth the loss surface and thus help stabilize the training process. Experiments at both retrieval and re-ranking stages show that our method outperforms existing parameter-efficient methods significantly, and achieves comparable or even better performance over full fine-tuning.

In this work, we show that Latent Flow-Matching (LFM) models are robust to different types of perturbations, including data reduction and model capacity shrinkage. We characterize this stability by their tendency to generate similar outputs under identical noise seeds. We provide a perspective relating this phenomenon to flow matching theory, which indicates that this stability is inherent to the FM objective. We further exploit this stability to derive practical algorithms for more efficient training and inference. Concretely, first, we show that by training LFM models on significantly reduced datasets, the performance does not degrade perceptually or quantitatively. This yields multiple advantages, such as reducing training time by converging faster under limited compute budget, and alleviating annotation effort when training conditional models. Second, LFM stability under architectural shrinkage gives rise to a two-model coarse-to-fine approach, one using a light-weight architecture for the first phase of the FM trajectory, and one with higher capacity for the second, thereby reducing the inference cost substantially. To determine which samples are informative, we introduce three sample-scoring criteria and evaluate them under standard metrics for generative models. Our results are thoroughly evaluated on multiple datasets, demonstrating the practical advantage of this stability, including data saving and a more than two-fold inference speedup while generating comparable outputs.

This paper comprehensively evaluates several recently proposed optimizers for 4-bit training, revealing that low-bit precision amplifies sensitivity to learning rates and often causes unstable gradient norms, leading to divergence at higher learning rates. Among these, SPAM, a recent optimizer featuring momentum reset and spike-aware gradient clipping, achieves the best performance across various bit levels, but struggles to stabilize gradient norms, requiring careful learning rate tuning. To address these limitations, we propose Stable-SPAM, which incorporates enhanced gradient normalization and clipping techniques. In particular, Stable-SPAM (1) adaptively updates the clipping threshold for spiked gradients by tracking their historical maxima; (2) normalizes the entire gradient matrix based on its historical l_2-norm statistics; and (3) inherits momentum reset from SPAM to periodically reset the first and second moments of Adam, mitigating the accumulation of spiked gradients. Extensive experiments show that Stable-SPAM effectively stabilizes gradient norms in 4-bit LLM training, delivering superior performance compared to Adam and SPAM. Notably, our 4-bit LLaMA-1B model trained with Stable-SPAM outperforms the BF16 LLaMA-1B trained with Adam by up to 2 perplexity. Furthermore, when both models are trained in 4-bit, Stable-SPAM achieves the same loss as Adam while requiring only about half the training steps. Code is available at https://github.com/TianjinYellow/StableSPAM.git.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems critically depend on retrieval quality, yet no systematic comparison of modern retrieval methods exists for heterogeneous documents containing both text and tabular data. We benchmark ten retrieval strategies spanning sparse, dense, hybrid fusion, cross-encoder reranking, query expansion, index augmentation, and adaptive retrieval on a challenging financial QA benchmark of 23,088 queries over 7,318 documents with mixed text-and-table content. We evaluate retrieval quality via Recall@k, MRR, and nDCG, and end-to-end generation quality via Number Match, with paired bootstrap significance testing. Our results show that (1) a two-stage pipeline combining hybrid retrieval with neural reranking achieves Recall@5 of 0.816 and MRR@3 of 0.605, outperforming all single-stage methods by a large margin; (2) BM25 outperforms state-of-the-art dense retrieval on financial documents, challenging the common assumption that semantic search universally dominates; and (3) query expansion methods (HyDE, multi-query) and adaptive retrieval provide limited benefit for precise numerical queries, while contextual retrieval yields consistent gains. We provide ablation studies on fusion methods and reranker depth, actionable cost-accuracy recommendations, and release our full benchmark code.

Time-dependent data-generating distributions have proven to be difficult for gradient-based training of neural networks, as the greedy updates result in catastrophic forgetting of previously learned knowledge. Despite the progress in the field of continual learning to overcome this forgetting, we show that a set of common state-of-the-art methods still suffers from substantial forgetting upon starting to learn new tasks, except that this forgetting is temporary and followed by a phase of performance recovery. We refer to this intriguing but potentially problematic phenomenon as the stability gap. The stability gap had likely remained under the radar due to standard practice in the field of evaluating continual learning models only after each task. Instead, we establish a framework for continual evaluation that uses per-iteration evaluation and we define a new set of metrics to quantify worst-case performance. Empirically we show that experience replay, constraint-based replay, knowledge-distillation, and parameter regularization methods are all prone to the stability gap; and that the stability gap can be observed in class-, task-, and domain-incremental learning benchmarks. Additionally, a controlled experiment shows that the stability gap increases when tasks are more dissimilar. Finally, by disentangling gradients into plasticity and stability components, we propose a conceptual explanation for the stability gap.

We present a bag of tricks framework for few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL), which is a challenging form of continual learning that involves continuous adaptation to new tasks with limited samples. FSCIL requires both stability and adaptability, i.e., preserving proficiency in previously learned tasks while learning new ones. Our proposed bag of tricks brings together eight key and highly influential techniques that improve stability, adaptability, and overall performance under a unified framework for FSCIL. We organize these tricks into three categories: stability tricks, adaptability tricks, and training tricks. Stability tricks aim to mitigate the forgetting of previously learned classes by enhancing the separation between the embeddings of learned classes and minimizing interference when learning new ones. On the other hand, adaptability tricks focus on the effective learning of new classes. Finally, training tricks improve the overall performance without compromising stability or adaptability. We perform extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets, CIFAR-100, CUB-200, and miniIMageNet, to evaluate the impact of our proposed framework. Our detailed analysis shows that our approach substantially improves both stability and adaptability, establishing a new state-of-the-art by outperforming prior works in the area. We believe our method provides a go-to solution and establishes a robust baseline for future research in this area.

The GSM-Symbolic benchmark (Mirzadeh et al., 2025) reported consistent performance drops across 25 Large Language Models (LLMs) when tested on template-generated variants of GSM8K problems, concluding that the models lack genuine reasoning capabilities. We argue that this conclusion rests on shaky statistical ground. Re-evaluating 20 open-weight models using bootstrapped Generalised Linear Mixed Models with per-question random effects, we find that only 8 exhibit statistically significant performance changes under the original prompt format. Moreover, we identify a previously unacknowledged factor: the distribution of integers in problem texts of the main GSM-Symbolic dataset is systematically shifted towards larger values relative to the original GSM8K (K-S statistic = 0.12, p < 0.001), contradicting the original authors' claims. Controlling for this large-number effect accounts for significance in half of the remaining cases. Among models with statistically significant performance deltas, we identify distinct, model-specific behavioural failure profiles -- including fragility of variable binding, arithmetic limitations, and dual-task interference -- underscoring that blanket claims about LLM reasoning risk being both statistically premature and mechanistically misleading.

Recent studies show that Large Language Models (LLMs) with safety alignment can be jail-broken by fine-tuning on a dataset mixed with harmful data. First time in the literature, we show that the jail-broken effect can be mitigated by separating states in the finetuning stage to optimize the alignment and user datasets. Unfortunately, our subsequent study shows that this simple Bi-State Optimization (BSO) solution experiences convergence instability when steps invested in its alignment state is too small, leading to downgraded alignment performance. By statistical analysis, we show that the excess drift towards consensus could be a probable reason for the instability. To remedy this issue, we propose Lazy(i) safety alignment (Lisa), which introduces a proximal term to constraint the drift of each state. Theoretically, the benefit of the proximal term is supported by the convergence analysis, wherein we show that a sufficient large proximal factor is necessary to guarantee Lisa's convergence. Empirically, our results on four downstream finetuning tasks show that Lisa with a proximal term can significantly increase alignment performance while maintaining the LLM's accuracy on the user tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/git-disl/Lisa.

We study the problem of visualizing large-scale and high-dimensional data in a low-dimensional (typically 2D or 3D) space. Much success has been reported recently by techniques that first compute a similarity structure of the data points and then project them into a low-dimensional space with the structure preserved. These two steps suffer from considerable computational costs, preventing the state-of-the-art methods such as the t-SNE from scaling to large-scale and high-dimensional data (e.g., millions of data points and hundreds of dimensions). We propose the LargeVis, a technique that first constructs an accurately approximated K-nearest neighbor graph from the data and then layouts the graph in the low-dimensional space. Comparing to t-SNE, LargeVis significantly reduces the computational cost of the graph construction step and employs a principled probabilistic model for the visualization step, the objective of which can be effectively optimized through asynchronous stochastic gradient descent with a linear time complexity. The whole procedure thus easily scales to millions of high-dimensional data points. Experimental results on real-world data sets demonstrate that the LargeVis outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and effectiveness. The hyper-parameters of LargeVis are also much more stable over different data sets.

We study the problem of optimizing biological sequences, e.g., proteins, DNA, and RNA, to maximize a black-box score function that is only evaluated in an offline dataset. We propose a novel solution, bootstrapped training of score-conditioned generator (BootGen) algorithm. Our algorithm repeats a two-stage process. In the first stage, our algorithm trains the biological sequence generator with rank-based weights to enhance the accuracy of sequence generation based on high scores. The subsequent stage involves bootstrapping, which augments the training dataset with self-generated data labeled by a proxy score function. Our key idea is to align the score-based generation with a proxy score function, which distills the knowledge of the proxy score function to the generator. After training, we aggregate samples from multiple bootstrapped generators and proxies to produce a diverse design. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms competitive baselines on biological sequential design tasks. We provide reproducible source code: https://github.com/kaist-silab/bootgen{https://github.com/kaist-silab/bootgen}.

Scaling laws for large language models depend critically on the optimizer and parameterization. Existing hyperparameter transfer laws are mainly developed for first-order optimizers, and they do not structurally prevent training instability at scale. Recent hypersphere optimization methods constrain weight matrices to a fixed-norm hypersphere, offering a promising alternative for more stable scaling. We introduce HyperP (Hypersphere Parameterization), the first framework for transferring optimal learning rates across model width, depth, training tokens, and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) granularity under the Frobenius-sphere constraint with the Muon optimizer. We prove that weight decay is a first-order no-op on the Frobenius sphere, show that Depth-μP remains necessary, and find that the optimal learning rate follows the same data-scaling power law with the "magic exponent" 0.32 previously observed for AdamW. A single base learning rate tuned at the smallest scale transfers across all compute budgets under HyperP, yielding 1.58times compute efficiency over a strong Muon baseline at 6times10^{21} FLOPs. Moreover, HyperP delivers transferable stability: all monitored instability indicators, including Z-values, output RMS, and activation outliers, remain bounded and non-increasing under training FLOPs scaling. We also propose SqrtGate, an MoE gating mechanism derived from the hypersphere constraint that preserves output RMS across MoE granularities for improved granularity scaling, and show that hypersphere optimization enables substantially larger auxiliary load-balancing weights, yielding both strong performance and good expert balance. We release our training codebase at https://github.com/microsoft/ArchScale.

Many platforms on the web present ranked lists of content to users, typically optimized for engagement-, satisfaction- or retention- driven metrics. Advances in the Learning-to-Rank (LTR) research literature have enabled rapid growth in this application area. Several popular interfaces now include nested lists, where users can enter a 2nd-level feed via any given 1st-level item. Naturally, this has implications for evaluation metrics, objective functions, and the ranking policies we wish to learn. We propose a theoretically grounded method to incorporate 2nd-level feedback into any 1st-level ranking model. Online experiments on a large-scale recommendation system confirm our theoretical findings.

Current LLM unlearning methods face a critical security vulnerability that undermines their fundamental purpose: while they appear to successfully remove sensitive or harmful knowledge, this ``forgotten" information remains precariously recoverable through relearning attacks. We identify that the root cause is that conventional methods optimizing the forgetting loss at individual data points will drive model parameters toward sharp minima in the loss landscape. In these unstable regions, even minimal parameter perturbations can drastically alter the model's behaviors. Consequently, relearning attacks exploit this vulnerability by using just a few fine-tuning samples to navigate the steep gradients surrounding these unstable regions, thereby rapidly recovering knowledge that was supposedly erased. This exposes a critical robustness gap between apparent unlearning and actual knowledge removal. To address this issue, we propose StableUN, a bi-level feedback-guided optimization framework that explicitly seeks more stable parameter regions via neighborhood-aware optimization. It integrates forgetting feedback, which uses adversarial perturbations to probe parameter neighborhoods, with remembering feedback to preserve model utility, aligning the two objectives through gradient projection. Experiments on WMDP and MUSE benchmarks demonstrate that our method is significantly more robust against both relearning and jailbreaking attacks while maintaining competitive utility performance.

Testing equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices is challenging when many entries differ only slightly. Dependence among sample covariance entries can also affect the finite-sample size and power of tests that aggregate their differences. We propose a studentized ell_2-type statistic that averages squared, marginally standardized differences between corresponding entries of the two sample covariance matrices. Before constructing the statistic, we apply the same nonsingular linear transformation to both samples. In the transformed coordinates, the covariance-equality hypothesis is unchanged, whereas the standardized differences and correlations among their estimators generally change. The transformation can therefore incorporate structural or scientific information without reducing dimension. We approximate the null distribution using a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap that uses coordinatewise studentization and avoids forming or inverting the full covariance matrix of the vectorized sample covariance entries. For deterministic transformations, we derive nonasymptotic Gaussian and bootstrap approximation bounds and establish asymptotic size validity and power consistency. We also show that replacing a population transformation by a same-sample estimator leaves the statistic and bootstrap critical value asymptotically unchanged in relative terms under an operator-norm convergence condition. Simulations show that suitable transformations improve size accuracy and power under weak dependence. An analysis of breast cancer gene-expression data illustrates the method.

As the post-training of large language models (LLMs) advances from instruction-following to complex reasoning tasks, understanding how different data affect finetuning dynamics remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a spectral analysis of layer-wise gradients induced by low/high-quality instruction and reasoning data for LLM post-training. Our analysis reveals that widely-studied metrics for data evaluation, e.g., IFD, InsTag, Difficulty, and Reward, can be explained and unified by spectral properties computed from gradients' singular value decomposition (SVD). Specifically, higher-quality data are usually associated with lower nuclear norms and higher effective ranks. Notably, effective rank exhibits better robustness and resolution than nuclear norm in capturing subtle quality differences. For example, reasoning data achieves substantially higher effective ranks than instruction data, implying richer gradient structures on more complex tasks. Our experiments also highlight that models within the same family share similar gradient patterns regardless of their sizes, whereas different model families diverge significantly. Providing a unified view on the effects of data quality across instruction and reasoning data, this work illuminates the interplay between data quality and training stability, shedding novel insights into developing better data exploration strategies for post-training.

Spectral clustering is a leading clustering method. Two of its major shortcomings are the disjoint optimization process and the limited representation capacity. To address these issues, we propose a deep spectral clustering model (named BootSC), which jointly learns all stages of spectral clustering -- affinity matrix construction, spectral embedding, and k-means clustering -- using a single network in an end-to-end manner. BootSC leverages effective and efficient optimal-transport-derived supervision to bootstrap the affinity matrix and the cluster assignment matrix. Moreover, a semantically-consistent orthogonal re-parameterization technique is introduced to orthogonalize spectral embeddings, significantly enhancing the discrimination capability. Experimental results indicate that BootSC achieves state-of-the-art clustering performance. For example, it accomplishes a notable 16\% NMI improvement over the runner-up method on the challenging ImageNet-Dogs dataset. Our code is available at https://github.com/spdj2271/BootSC.

Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. For both the t-test and the bootstrap confidence interval test, we recall theoretical guidelines to determine the number of random seeds one should use to provide a statistically significant comparison of the performance of two algorithms. Finally, we discuss the influence of deviations from the assumptions usually made by statistical tests. We show that they can lead to inaccurate evaluations of statistical errors and provide guidelines to counter these negative effects. We make our code available to perform the tests.

Looped Language Models (LoopLMs) enable efficient latent reasoning through depth recurrence, yet exhibit unreliable test-time scaling behavior: performance often peaks at a certain iteration depth and then collapses with further recurrence. Through latent dynamics analysis, we find an inherent trade-off between stability and effectiveness in existing architectures and strategies. By conceptualizing reasoning as uncertainty reduction, we propose that convergence toward stable fixed points while preserving effectiveness represents a promising way. To this end, we propose STARS (STAbility-driven Recurrent Scaling), a training framework that constrains latent states to approach asymptotically stable fixed points. This is realized via efficient Jacobian Spectral Radius Regularization with random loop sampling, enabling STARS to maximize effectiveness while ensuring rigorous stability. Experiments on arithmetic tasks show that STARS achieves reliable test-time scaling, and on complex mathematical reasoning it substantially mitigates performance degradation as recurrence depth increases while also improving peak performance.

A key puzzle in search, ads, and recommendation is that the ranking model can only utilize a small portion of the vastly available user interaction data. As a result, increasing data volume, model size, or computation FLOPs will quickly suffer from diminishing returns. We examined this problem and found that one of the root causes may lie in the so-called ``item-centric'' formulation, which has an unbounded vocabulary and thus uncontrolled model complexity. To mitigate quality saturation, we introduce an alternative formulation named ``user-centric ranking'', which is based on a transposed view of the dyadic user-item interaction data. We show that this formulation has a promising scaling property, enabling us to train better-converged models on substantially larger data sets.

We develop a novel approach to explain why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. By introducing a measure of the influence of the noise points (ION) in the training data for the binary classification problem, we prove that there is a strong connection between the ION and the test error. We further identify that the ION of AdaBoost decreases as the iteration number or the complexity of the base learners increases. We confirm that it is impossible to obtain a consistent classifier without deep trees as the base learners of AdaBoost in some complicated situations. We apply AdaBoost in portfolio management via empirical studies in the Chinese market, which corroborates our theoretical propositions.

Open community-driven platforms like Chatbot Arena that collect user preference data from site visitors have gained a reputation as one of the most trustworthy publicly available benchmarks for LLM performance. While now standard, it is tricky to implement effective guardrails to collect high-quality annotations from humans. In this paper, we demonstrate that three sources of bad annotations, both malicious and otherwise, can corrupt the reliability of open leaderboard rankings. In particular, we show that only 10\% of poor quality votes by apathetic (site visitors not appropriately incentivized to give correct votes) or adversarial (bad actors seeking to inflate the ranking of a target model) annotators can change the rankings of models by up to 5 places on the leaderboard. Finally, we discuss open challenges in ensuring high-quality human annotations.

Ranking and scoring are ubiquitous. We consider the setting in which an institution, called a ranker, evaluates a set of individuals based on demographic, behavioral or other characteristics. The final output is a ranking that represents the relative quality of the individuals. While automatic and therefore seemingly objective, rankers can, and often do, discriminate against individuals and systematically disadvantage members of protected groups. This warrants a careful study of the fairness of a ranking scheme. In this paper we propose fairness measures for ranked outputs. We develop a data generation procedure that allows us to systematically control the degree of unfairness in the output, and study the behavior of our measures on these datasets. We then apply our proposed measures to several real datasets, and demonstrate cases of unfairness. Finally, we show preliminary results of incorporating our ranked fairness measures into an optimization framework, and show potential for improving fairness of ranked outputs while maintaining accuracy.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has become a key paradigm for reducing factual hallucinations in large language models (LLMs), yet little is known about how the order of retrieved documents affects model behavior. We empirically show that under Top-5 retrieval with the gold document included, LLM answers vary substantially across permutations of the retrieved set, even when the gold document is fixed in the first position. This reveals a previously underexplored sensitivity to retrieval permutations. Although robust RAG methods primarily focus on enhancing LLM robustness to low-quality retrieval and mitigating positional bias to distribute attention fairly over long contexts, neither approach directly addresses permutation sensitivity. In this paper, we propose Stable-RAG, which exploits permutation sensitivity estimation to mitigate permutation-induced hallucinations. Stable-RAG runs the generator under multiple retrieval orders, clusters hidden states, and decodes from a cluster-center representation that captures the dominant reasoning pattern. It then uses these reasoning results to align hallucinated outputs toward the correct answer, encouraging the model to produce consistent and accurate predictions across document permutations. Experiments on three QA datasets show that Stable-RAG significantly improves answer accuracy, reasoning consistency and robust generalization across datasets, retrievers, and input lengths compared with baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where reasoning, such as multi-step problem solving and chain-of-thought, is essential. Yet, current evaluation practices overwhelmingly report single-run accuracy while ignoring the intrinsic uncertainty that naturally arises from stochastic decoding. This omission creates a blind spot because practitioners cannot reliably assess whether a method's reported performance is stable, reproducible, or cost-consistent. We introduce ReasonBENCH, the first benchmark designed to quantify the underlying instability in LLM reasoning. ReasonBENCH provides (i) a modular evaluation library that standardizes reasoning frameworks, models, and tasks, (ii) a multi-run protocol that reports statistically reliable metrics for both quality and cost, and (iii) a public leaderboard to encourage variance-aware reporting. Across tasks from different domains, we find that the vast majority of reasoning strategies and models exhibit high instability. Notably, even strategies with similar average performance can display confidence intervals up to four times wider, and the top-performing methods often incur higher and less stable costs. Such instability compromises reproducibility across runs and, consequently, the reliability of reported performance. To better understand these dynamics, we further analyze the impact of prompts, model families, and scale on the trade-off between solve rate and stability. Our results highlight reproducibility as a critical dimension for reliable LLM reasoning and provide a foundation for future reasoning methods and uncertainty quantification techniques. ReasonBENCH is publicly available at https://github.com/au-clan/ReasonBench .

We propose a new bound for generalization of neural networks using Koopman operators. Whereas most of existing works focus on low-rank weight matrices, we focus on full-rank weight matrices. Our bound is tighter than existing norm-based bounds when the condition numbers of weight matrices are small. Especially, it is completely independent of the width of the network if the weight matrices are orthogonal. Our bound does not contradict to the existing bounds but is a complement to the existing bounds. As supported by several existing empirical results, low-rankness is not the only reason for generalization. Furthermore, our bound can be combined with the existing bounds to obtain a tighter bound. Our result sheds new light on understanding generalization of neural networks with full-rank weight matrices, and it provides a connection between operator-theoretic analysis and generalization of neural networks.

Ranking passages by prompting a large language model (LLM) can achieve promising performance in modern information retrieval (IR) systems. A common approach is to sort the ranking list by prompting LLMs for pairwise comparison. However, sorting-based methods require consistent comparisons to correctly sort the passages, which we show that LLMs often violate. We identify two kinds of intrinsic inconsistency in LLM-based pairwise comparisons: order inconsistency which leads to conflicting results when switching the passage order, and transitive inconsistency which leads to non-transitive triads among all preference pairs. In this paper, we propose LLM-RankFusion, an LLM-based ranking framework that mitigates these inconsistencies and produces a robust ranking list. LLM-RankFusion mitigates order inconsistency using in-context learning (ICL) to demonstrate order-agnostic comparisons and calibration to estimate the underlying preference probability between two passages. We then address transitive inconsistency by aggregating the ranking results from multiple rankers. In our experiments, we empirically show that LLM-RankFusion can significantly reduce inconsistent pairwise comparison results, and improve the ranking quality by making the final ranking list more robust.

Evaluating large language models at scale remains a practical bottleneck for many organizations. While existing evaluation frameworks work well for thousands of examples, they struggle when datasets grow to hundreds of thousands or millions of samples. This scale is common when assessing model behavior across diverse domains or conducting comprehensive regression testing. We present Spark-LLM-Eval, a distributed evaluation framework built natively on Apache Spark. The system treats evaluation as a data-parallel problem, partitioningexamplesacrossexecutorsandaggregatingresultswithproperstatistical accounting. Beyond raw throughput, we emphasize statistical rigor: every reported metric includes bootstrap confidence intervals, and model comparisons come with appropriate significance tests (paired t-tests, McNemar's test, or Wilcoxon signed-rank, depending on the metric type). The framework also addresses the cost problem inherent in LLM evaluation through content-addressable response caching backed by Delta Lake, which allows iterating on metric definitions without re-running inference. We describe the system architecture, the statistical methodology, and report benchmark results showing linear scaling with cluster size. The framework and all evaluation code are available as open source.

Self-alignment is an effective way to reduce the cost of human annotation while ensuring promising model capability. However, most current methods complete the data collection and training steps in a single round, which may overlook the continuously improving ability of self-aligned models. This gives rise to a key query: What if we do multi-time bootstrapping self-alignment? Does this strategy enhance model performance or lead to rapid degradation? In this paper, our pioneering exploration delves into the impact of bootstrapping self-alignment on large language models. Our findings reveal that bootstrapping self-alignment markedly surpasses the single-round approach, by guaranteeing data diversity from in-context learning. To further exploit the capabilities of bootstrapping, we investigate and adjust the training order of data, which yields improved performance of the model. Drawing on these findings, we propose Step-On-Feet Tuning (SOFT) which leverages model's continuously enhanced few-shot ability to boost zero or one-shot performance. Based on easy-to-hard training recipe, we propose SOFT+ which further boost self-alignment's performance. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of SOFT (SOFT+) across various classification and generation tasks, highlighting the potential of bootstrapping self-alignment on continually enhancing model alignment performance.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

LLM-judged benchmarks are increasingly used to evaluate complex model behaviors, yet their design introduces failure modes absent in conventional ground-truth based benchmarks. We argue that without tight objectives and verifiable constructions, benchmark rankings can produce high-confidence rankings that are in fact largely noise. We introduce two mechanisms to diagnose these issues. Schematic adherence quantifies how much of a judge's overall verdict is explained by the explicit evaluation schema, revealing unexplained variance when judges deviate from their own rubric. Psychometric validity aggregates internal consistency and discriminant validity signals to quantify irreducible uncertainty in any benchmarking run. Applying these tools to Arena-Hard Auto, we find severe schema incoherence and factor collapse across popular judges: for example, unexplained variance exceeding 90 percent for DeepSeek-R1-32B and factor correlations above 0.93 for most criteria. We also show that the ELO-style aggregation used by Arena-Hard Auto collapses and masks genuine ranking uncertainty. Our results highlight design failures that undermine validity and offer actionable principles for building better-scoped, reliability-aware LLM-judged benchmarks. We release our code at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/judgment-to-noise-947D/README.md

The stability of language model pre-training and its effects on downstream performance are still understudied. Prior work shows that the training process can yield significantly different results in response to slight variations in initial conditions, e.g., the random seed. Crucially, the research community still lacks sufficient resources and tools to systematically investigate pre-training stability, particularly for decoder-only language models. We introduce the PolyPythias, a set of 45 new training runs for the Pythia model suite: 9 new seeds across 5 model sizes, from 14M to 410M parameters, resulting in about 7k new checkpoints that we release. Using these new 45 training runs, in addition to the 5 already available, we study the effects of different initial conditions determined by the seed -- i.e., parameters' initialisation and data order -- on (i) downstream performance, (ii) learned linguistic representations, and (iii) emergence of training phases. In addition to common scaling behaviours, our analyses generally reveal highly consistent training dynamics across both model sizes and initial conditions. Further, the new seeds for each model allow us to identify outlier training runs and delineate their characteristics. Our findings show the potential of using these methods to predict training stability.

Ranking is a fundamental and popular problem in search. However, existing ranking algorithms usually restrict the granularity of ranking to full passages or require a specific dense index for each desired level of granularity. Such lack of flexibility in granularity negatively affects many applications that can benefit from more granular ranking, such as sentence-level ranking for open-domain question-answering, or proposition-level ranking for attribution. In this work, we introduce the idea of any-granularity ranking, which leverages multi-vector embeddings to rank at varying levels of granularity while maintaining encoding at a single (coarser) level of granularity. We propose a multi-granular contrastive loss for training multi-vector approaches, and validate its utility with both sentences and propositions as ranking units. Finally, we demonstrate the application of proposition-level ranking to post-hoc citation addition in retrieval-augmented generation, surpassing the performance of prompt-driven citation generation.

Synthetic data generated by large language models has become integral to modern NLP training pipelines, from bootstrapping reasoning capabilities to augmenting instruction-following datasets. While recent work demonstrates successful applications maintaining high external data ratios, systematic understanding of how synthetic data proportion affects model behavior across different scales remains limited. This paper presents a controlled empirical study examining model performance, calibration, and output characteristics when trained on varying synthetic-to-external data ratios. Using the Pythia model suite (410M-12B parameters) across five diverse tasks, we evaluate models after one to three training iterations with synthetic data proportions ranging from 0-50\%. Our key findings include: models maintain stable performance with up to 20\% synthetic data, but degradation accelerates beyond 30\%; larger models (6.9B-12B) show greater robustness to synthetic data than smaller models (410M-1.4B); calibration degradation precedes accuracy loss, providing an early warning signal; and task characteristics matter, with reasoning tasks degrading faster than retrieval tasks under synthetic data training. Importantly, we find that current best practices, such as those employed in STaR and Self-Instruct systems that maintain greater than 80\% external data, operate well within safe regimes identified by our experiments. We provide practical guidance for practitioners on synthetic data budgets based on model scale and task requirements, alongside detailed comparison with concurrent work including Shumailov et al.'s model collapse findings.

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have achieved promising results in information retrieval. NRMs have also been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples. A typical Word Substitution Ranking Attack (WSRA) against NRMs was proposed recently, in which an attacker promotes a target document in rankings by adding human-imperceptible perturbations to its text. This raises concerns when deploying NRMs in real-world applications. Therefore, it is important to develop techniques that defend against such attacks for NRMs. In empirical defenses adversarial examples are found during training and used to augment the training set. However, such methods offer no theoretical guarantee on the models' robustness and may eventually be broken by other sophisticated WSRAs. To escape this arms race, rigorous and provable certified defense methods for NRMs are needed. To this end, we first define the Certified Top-K Robustness for ranking models since users mainly care about the top ranked results in real-world scenarios. A ranking model is said to be Certified Top-K Robust on a ranked list when it is guaranteed to keep documents that are out of the top K away from the top K under any attack. Then, we introduce a Certified Defense method, named CertDR, to achieve certified top-K robustness against WSRA, based on the idea of randomized smoothing. Specifically, we first construct a smoothed ranker by applying random word substitutions on the documents, and then leverage the ranking property jointly with the statistical property of the ensemble to provably certify top-K robustness. Extensive experiments on two representative web search datasets demonstrate that CertDR can significantly outperform state-of-the-art empirical defense methods for ranking models.

The design of modern recommender systems relies on understanding which parts of the feature space are relevant for solving a given recommendation task. However, real-world data sets in this domain are often characterized by their large size, sparsity, and noise, making it challenging to identify meaningful signals. Feature ranking represents an efficient branch of algorithms that can help address these challenges by identifying the most informative features and facilitating the automated search for more compact and better-performing models (AutoML). We introduce OutRank, a system for versatile feature ranking and data quality-related anomaly detection. OutRank was built with categorical data in mind, utilizing a variant of mutual information that is normalized with regard to the noise produced by features of the same cardinality. We further extend the similarity measure by incorporating information on feature similarity and combined relevance. The proposed approach's feasibility is demonstrated by speeding up the state-of-the-art AutoML system on a synthetic data set with no performance loss. Furthermore, we considered a real-life click-through-rate prediction data set where it outperformed strong baselines such as random forest-based approaches. The proposed approach enables exploration of up to 300% larger feature spaces compared to AutoML-only approaches, enabling faster search for better models on off-the-shelf hardware.

Unbiased learning-to-rank (ULTR) is a well-established framework for learning from user clicks, which are often biased by the ranker collecting the data. While theoretically justified and extensively tested in simulation, ULTR techniques lack empirical validation, especially on modern search engines. The dataset released for the WSDM Cup 2023, collected from Baidu's search engine, offers a rare opportunity to assess the real-world performance of prominent ULTR techniques. Despite multiple submissions during the WSDM Cup 2023 and the subsequent NTCIR ULTRE-2 task, it remains unclear whether the observed improvements stem from applying ULTR or other learning techniques. We revisit and extend the available experiments. We find that unbiased learning-to-rank techniques do not bring clear performance improvements, especially compared to the stark differences brought by the choice of ranking loss and query-document features. Our experiments reveal that ULTR robustly improves click prediction. However, these gains in click prediction do not translate to enhanced ranking performance on expert relevance annotations, implying that conclusions strongly depend on how success is measured in this benchmark.

We propose Heuristic Blending (HUBL), a simple performance-improving technique for a broad class of offline RL algorithms based on value bootstrapping. HUBL modifies the Bellman operators used in these algorithms, partially replacing the bootstrapped values with heuristic ones that are estimated with Monte-Carlo returns. For trajectories with higher returns, HUBL relies more on the heuristic values and less on bootstrapping; otherwise, it leans more heavily on bootstrapping. HUBL is very easy to combine with many existing offline RL implementations by relabeling the offline datasets with adjusted rewards and discount factors. We derive a theory that explains HUBL's effect on offline RL as reducing offline RL's complexity and thus increasing its finite-sample performance. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that HUBL consistently improves the policy quality of four state-of-the-art bootstrapping-based offline RL algorithms (ATAC, CQL, TD3+BC, and IQL), by 9% on average over 27 datasets of the D4RL and Meta-World benchmarks.

Adversarial text attacks remain a persistent threat to transformer models, yet existing defenses are typically attack-specific or require costly model retraining. We introduce Representation Stability (RS), a model-agnostic detection framework that identifies adversarial examples by measuring how embedding representations change when important words are masked. RS first ranks words using importance heuristics, then measures embedding sensitivity to masking top-k critical words, and processes the resulting patterns with a BiLSTM detector. Experiments show that adversarially perturbed words exhibit disproportionately high masking sensitivity compared to naturally important words. Across three datasets, three attack types, and two victim models, RS achieves over 88% detection accuracy and demonstrates competitive performance compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, often at lower computational cost. Using Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) to measure perturbation identification quality, we reveal that gradient-based ranking outperforms attention and random selection approaches, with identification quality correlating with detection performance for word-level attacks. RS also generalizes well to unseen datasets, attacks, and models without retraining, providing a practical solution for adversarial text detection.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Multi-vector late-interaction retrievers such as ColBERT achieve state-of-the-art retrieval quality, but their query-time cost is dominated by exhaustively computing token-level MaxSim interactions for every candidate document. While approximating late interaction with single-vector representations reduces cost, it often incurs substantial accuracy loss. We introduce Col-Bandit, a query-time pruning algorithm that reduces this computational burden by casting reranking as a finite-population Top-K identification problem. Col-Bandit maintains uncertainty-aware bounds over partially observed document scores and adaptively reveals only the (document, query token) MaxSim entries needed to determine the top results under statistical decision bounds with a tunable relaxation. Unlike coarse-grained approaches that prune entire documents or tokens offline, Col-Bandit sparsifies the interaction matrix on the fly. It operates as a zero-shot, drop-in layer over standard multi-vector systems, requiring no index modifications, offline preprocessing, or model retraining. Experiments on textual (BEIR) and multimodal (REAL-MM-RAG) benchmarks show that Col-Bandit preserves ranking fidelity while reducing MaxSim FLOPs by up to 5times, indicating that dense late-interaction scoring contains substantial redundancy that can be identified and pruned efficiently at query time.

Reliable deployment of language models requires two capabilities that appear distinct but share a common geometric foundation: predicting whether a model will accept targeted behavioral control, and detecting when its internal structure degrades. We show that geometric stability, the consistency of a representation's pairwise distance structure, addresses both. Supervised Shesha variants that measure task-aligned geometric stability predict linear steerability with near-perfect accuracy (ρ= 0.89-0.97) across 35-69 embedding models and three NLP tasks, capturing unique variance beyond class separability (partial ρ= 0.62-0.76). A critical dissociation emerges: unsupervised stability fails entirely for steering on real-world tasks (ρapprox 0.10), revealing that task alignment is essential for controllability prediction. However, unsupervised stability excels at drift detection, measuring nearly 2times greater geometric change than CKA during post-training alignment (up to 5.23times in Llama) while providing earlier warning in 73\% of models and maintaining a 6times lower false alarm rate than Procrustes. Together, supervised and unsupervised stability form complementary diagnostics for the LLM deployment lifecycle: one for pre-deployment controllability assessment, the other for post-deployment monitoring.

Static benchmarks measure a model frozen at training time. Real systems face distribution shift: new categories, paraphrased queries, drift: and must recover online via user corrections. No existing benchmark measures recovery speed under correction streams. We introduce OCRR (Online Correction Recovery Rate): a benchmark that streams a corpus through a classification system, applies oracle or stochastic corrections to wrong predictions, and reports two curves: novel-class accuracy and original-distribution accuracy versus correction count. We evaluate the substrate alongside nine baseline algorithms from five families plus seven bounded-storage variants of the substrate for the Pareto sweep, including standard online-learning baselines (river), continual-learning methods (EWC, A-GEM, LwF), retrieval/parametric hybrids (kNN-LM), parameter-efficient fine-tuning of a 1.5 B-parameter encoder (LoRA on DeBERTa-v3-large), and a hash-chained append-only substrate (Substrate). On Banking77 and CLINC150, under oracle and sparse correction policies, the substrate is the only system that simultaneously recovers novel-class accuracy (88.7 +/- 2.9 %) and retains original-distribution accuracy (95.4 +/- 0.8 %) beating the next-best published continual-learning baseline by 32.6 percentage points at equal memory budget, and beating LoRA-on-DeBERTa-v3-large by 84.6 percentage points on retention. We further find that classification accuracy remains stable at 99 % even as approximate-nearest-neighbour recall@5 degrades from 0.69 to 0.23 across 10 k to 10 M corpus scales, suggesting the substrate's margin-band majority vote is robust to retrieval imperfection in a way that pure top-k recall metrics do not predict. Code and data are available at https://github.com/adriangrassi/ocrr-benchmark.

This paper is concerned with the matching stability problem across different decoder layers in DEtection TRansformers (DETR). We point out that the unstable matching in DETR is caused by a multi-optimization path problem, which is highlighted by the one-to-one matching design in DETR. To address this problem, we show that the most important design is to use and only use positional metrics (like IOU) to supervise classification scores of positive examples. Under the principle, we propose two simple yet effective modifications by integrating positional metrics to DETR's classification loss and matching cost, named position-supervised loss and position-modulated cost. We verify our methods on several DETR variants. Our methods show consistent improvements over baselines. By integrating our methods with DINO, we achieve 50.4 and 51.5 AP on the COCO detection benchmark using ResNet-50 backbones under 12 epochs and 24 epochs training settings, achieving a new record under the same setting. We achieve 63.8 AP on COCO detection test-dev with a Swin-Large backbone. Our code will be made available at https://github.com/IDEA-Research/Stable-DINO.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

The standard normalization method for neural network (NN) models used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) is layer normalization (LN). This is different than batch normalization (BN), which is widely-adopted in Computer Vision. The preferred use of LN in NLP is principally due to the empirical observation that a (naive/vanilla) use of BN leads to significant performance degradation for NLP tasks; however, a thorough understanding of the underlying reasons for this is not always evident. In this paper, we perform a systematic study of NLP transformer models to understand why BN has a poor performance, as compared to LN. We find that the statistics of NLP data across the batch dimension exhibit large fluctuations throughout training. This results in instability, if BN is naively implemented. To address this, we propose Power Normalization (PN), a novel normalization scheme that resolves this issue by (i) relaxing zero-mean normalization in BN, (ii) incorporating a running quadratic mean instead of per batch statistics to stabilize fluctuations, and (iii) using an approximate backpropagation for incorporating the running statistics in the forward pass. We show theoretically, under mild assumptions, that PN leads to a smaller Lipschitz constant for the loss, compared with BN. Furthermore, we prove that the approximate backpropagation scheme leads to bounded gradients. We extensively test PN for transformers on a range of NLP tasks, and we show that it significantly outperforms both LN and BN. In particular, PN outperforms LN by 0.4/0.6 BLEU on IWSLT14/WMT14 and 5.6/3.0 PPL on PTB/WikiText-103. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/sIncerass/powernorm.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.