How Much Is One Recurrence Worth? Iso-Depth Scaling Laws for Looped Language Models

We measure how much one extra recurrence is worth to a looped (depth-recurrent) language model, in equivalent unique parameters. From an iso-depth sweep of 116 pretraining runs across recurrence counts r in {1, 2, 4, 8} spanning {sim}50times in training compute, we fit a joint scaling law L = E + A,(N_once + r^φ N_rec)^{-α} + B,D^{-β} and recover a new recurrence-equivalence exponent φ= 0.46. Intuitively, φ tells us whether looping a block r times is equivalent in validation loss to r unique blocks of a non-looped model (full equivalence, φ{=}1) or to a single block run repeatedly with no capacity gain (φ{=}0). Our φ= 0.46 sits in between, so each additional recurrence predictably increases validation loss at matched training compute. For example, at r{=}4 a 410M looped model performs on par with a 580M non-looped model, but incurs the training cost of a 1B non-looped one. We demonstrate the utility of φ as a measurement tool on two probes. Truncated backpropagation lowers φ to 0.38, indicating that the loop mechanism is poorly trained under truncation, even though validation loss decreases. Conversely, hyperconnections raise φ to 0.65, a genuine capacity gain. Our method applies to any looped LM and separates true loop improvements from token-budget gains.