Multi-scale species richness estimation with deep learning

Biodiversity assessments are critically affected by the spatial scale at which species richness is measured. How species richness accumulates with sampling area depends on natural and anthropogenic processes whose effects can change depending on the spatial scale considered. These accumulation dynamics, described by the species-area relationship (SAR), are challenging to assess because most biodiversity surveys are restricted to sampling areas much smaller than the scales at which these processes operate. Here, we combine sampling theory and deep learning to predict local species richness within arbitrarily large sampling areas, enabling for the first time to estimate spatial differences in SARs. We demonstrate our approach by predicting vascular plant species richness across Europe and evaluate predictions against an independent dataset of plant community inventories. The resulting model, named deep SAR, delivers multi-scale species richness maps, improving coarse grain richness estimates by 32% compared to conventional methods, while delivering finer grain estimates. Additional to its predictive capabilities, we show how our deep SAR model can provide fundamental insights on the multi-scale effects of key biodiversity processes. The capacity of our approach to deliver comprehensive species richness estimates across the full spectrum of ecologically relevant scales is essential for robust biodiversity assessments and forecasts under global change.